Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

CME Group Inc. (CME)

$176.23

-0.44 (-0.25%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 240.44 | 176.23 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	4,309.40	4,868	4,883.60	4,689.70	5,019.40	5,224.48	5,437.93	5,660.11	5,891.36	6,132.06
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	3,182.70	3,341.60	3,351.50	3,925.40	4,015.60	3,916.59	4,076.61	4,243.17	4,416.53	4,596.97
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	2,934	2,868.30	2,887.10	3,540	3,653	3,493.98	3,636.73	3,785.32	3,939.97	4,100.95
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	248.70	473.30	464.40	385.40	362.60	422.61	439.88	457.85	476.55	496.02
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	1,447.40	1,634.60	1,734.10	2,949.90	2,816.10	2,316.33	2,410.96	2,509.47	2,612	2,718.71
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	553.30	491.80	461.30	434.50	483.20	535.82	557.71	580.50	604.21	628.90
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	116	61.90	69.30	48.80	121.40	92.39	96.16	100.09	104.18	108.43
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-116.70	-245.60	-197.50	-127.20	-89.70	-170.28	-177.24	-184.48	-192.02	-199.87
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 176.23
Beta	0.425
Diluted Shares Outstanding	359.18
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	22.90
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.65%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	5.701
Total Debt	3,438.40
Total Equity	63,298.47
Total Capital	66,736.87
Debt Weighting	5.15
Equity Weighting	94.85
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	4,309.40	4,868	4,883.60	4,689.70	5,019.40	5,224.48	5,437.93	5,660.11	5,891.36	6,132.06
EBITDA	3,182.70	3,341.60	3,351.50	3,925.40	4,015.60	3,916.59	4,076.61	4,243.17	4,416.53	4,596.97
EBIT	2,934	2,868.30	2,887.10	3,540	3,653	3,493.98	3,636.73	3,785.32	3,939.97	4,100.95
Tax Rate	29.36%	21.31%	22.66%	21.85%	22.90%	23.62%	23.62%	23.62%	23.62%	23.62%
EBIAT	2,072.54	2,257.12	2,232.81	2,766.44	2,816.44	2,668.81	2,777.85	2,891.34	3,009.47	3,132.43
Depreciation	248.70	473.30	464.40	385.40	362.60	422.61	439.88	457.85	476.55	496.02
Accounts Receivable	-	61.50	30.50	26.80	-48.70	-52.62	-21.89	-22.79	-23.72	-24.69
Inventories	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Accounts Payable	-	-54.10	7.40	-20.50	72.60	-29.01	3.77	3.93	4.09	4.26
Capital Expenditure	-116.70	-245.60	-197.50	-127.20	-89.70	-170.28	-177.24	-184.48	-192.02	-199.87
UFCF	2,204.54	2,492.22	2,537.61	3,030.94	3,113.24	2,839.50	3,022.37	3,145.85	3,274.38	3,408.16
WACC
PV UFCF						2,689.18	2,710.82	2,672.20	2,634.13	2,596.61
SUM PV UFCF										13,302.94

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	5.59
Free cash flow (t + 1)	3,476.32
Terminal Value	96,833.49
Present Value of Terminal Value	73,775.41

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	87,078.35
Net Debt	718.30
Equity Value	86,360.05
Shares Outstanding	359.18
Equity Value Per Share	240.44