Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Computer Modelling Group Ltd. (CMG.TO)
$6.06
+0.07 (+1.17%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 74.68 | 74.86 | 75.79 | 67.36 | 66.20 | 64.32 | 62.50 | 60.72 | 59 | 57.32 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 31.78 | 34.06 | 38.94 | 33.27 | 30.22 | 30.16 | 29.31 | 28.48 | 27.67 | 26.88 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 29.79 | 32.10 | 34.58 | 29 | 26.02 | 27.11 | 26.34 | 25.60 | 24.87 | 24.16 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 2 | 1.95 | 4.36 | 4.27 | 4.20 | 3.05 | 2.96 | 2.88 | 2.80 | 2.72 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 63.72 | 54.29 | 40.51 | 49.07 | 59.66 | 48.15 | 46.78 | 45.45 | 44.16 | 42.90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 16.27 | 19.22 | 26.28 | 23.24 | 17.51 | 18.41 | 17.88 | 17.38 | 16.88 | 16.40 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 0.57 | 0.33 | 0.40 | 0.19 | 0.29 | 0.32 | 0.31 | 0.30 | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -4.67 | -0.74 | -0.99 | -0.40 | -0.70 | -1.31 | -1.28 | -1.24 | -1.20 | -1.17 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 6.06 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.338 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 80.61 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 23.38 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.88% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.835 |
| Total Debt | 39.59 |
| Total Equity | 488.49 |
| Total Capital | 528.08 |
| Debt Weighting | 7.50 |
| Equity Weighting | 92.50 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 74.68 | 74.86 | 75.79 | 67.36 | 66.20 | 64.32 | 62.50 | 60.72 | 59 | 57.32 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 31.78 | 34.06 | 38.94 | 33.27 | 30.22 | 30.16 | 29.31 | 28.48 | 27.67 | 26.88 |
| EBIT | 29.79 | 32.10 | 34.58 | 29 | 26.02 | 27.11 | 26.34 | 25.60 | 24.87 | 24.16 |
| Tax Rate | 27.96% | 28.34% | 27.64% | 25.01% | 23.38% | 26.47% | 26.47% | 26.47% | 26.47% | 26.47% |
| EBIAT | 21.46 | 23 | 25.02 | 21.75 | 19.94 | 19.94 | 19.37 | 18.82 | 18.29 | 17.77 |
| Depreciation | 2 | 1.95 | 4.36 | 4.27 | 4.20 | 3.05 | 2.96 | 2.88 | 2.80 | 2.72 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -2.95 | -7.06 | 3.04 | 5.73 | -0.90 | 0.52 | 0.51 | 0.49 | 0.48 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | -0.24 | 0.07 | -0.21 | 0.11 | 0.02 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 |
| Capital Expenditure | -4.67 | -0.74 | -0.99 | -0.40 | -0.70 | -1.31 | -1.28 | -1.24 | -1.20 | -1.17 |
| UFCF | 18.78 | 21.02 | 21.41 | 28.44 | 29.27 | 20.80 | 21.57 | 20.96 | 20.37 | 19.79 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 19.01 | 18.03 | 16.01 | 14.22 | 12.63 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 79.91 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 9.39 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 20.18 |
| Terminal Value | 273.12 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 174.36 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 254.28 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -20.07 |
| Equity Value | 274.35 |
| Shares Outstanding | 80.61 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 3.40 |