Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Computer Modelling Group Ltd. (CMG.TO)

$6.06

+0.07 (+1.17%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 3.40 | 6.06 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 74.6874.8675.7967.3666.2064.3262.5060.725957.32
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 31.7834.0638.9433.2730.2230.1629.3128.4827.6726.88
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 29.7932.1034.582926.0227.1126.3425.6024.8724.16
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 21.954.364.274.203.052.962.882.802.72
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 63.7254.2940.5149.0759.6648.1546.7845.4544.1642.90
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 16.2719.2226.2823.2417.5118.4117.8817.3816.8816.40
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 0.570.330.400.190.290.320.310.300.290.28
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -4.67-0.74-0.99-0.40-0.70-1.31-1.28-1.24-1.20-1.17
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 6.06
Beta 1.338
Diluted Shares Outstanding 80.61
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 23.38
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.88%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.835
Total Debt 39.59
Total Equity 488.49
Total Capital 528.08
Debt Weighting 7.50
Equity Weighting 92.50
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 74.6874.8675.7967.3666.2064.3262.5060.725957.32
EBITDA 31.7834.0638.9433.2730.2230.1629.3128.4827.6726.88
EBIT 29.7932.1034.582926.0227.1126.3425.6024.8724.16
Tax Rate 27.96%28.34%27.64%25.01%23.38%26.47%26.47%26.47%26.47%26.47%
EBIAT 21.462325.0221.7519.9419.9419.3718.8218.2917.77
Depreciation 21.954.364.274.203.052.962.882.802.72
Accounts Receivable --2.95-7.063.045.73-0.900.520.510.490.48
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable --0.240.07-0.210.110.02-0.01-0.01-0.01-0.01
Capital Expenditure -4.67-0.74-0.99-0.40-0.70-1.31-1.28-1.24-1.20-1.17
UFCF 18.7821.0221.4128.4429.2720.8021.5720.9620.3719.79
WACC
PV UFCF 19.0118.0316.0114.2212.63
SUM PV UFCF 79.91

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.39
Free cash flow (t + 1) 20.18
Terminal Value 273.12
Present Value of Terminal Value 174.36

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 254.28
Net Debt -20.07
Equity Value 274.35
Shares Outstanding 80.61
Equity Value Per Share 3.40