Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Chimerix, Inc. (CMRX)

$1.89

+0.08 (+4.42%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -8.60 | 1.89 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 4.497.2212.525.371.982.052.122.192.272.35
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -69.89-68.61-112.01-43.12-173.07-53.02-54.85-56.74-58.70-60.73
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -70.98-69.47-112.58-43.52-173.24-53.25-55.09-56.99-58.96-61
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1.090.860.560.400.170.230.240.250.260.27
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 151.52186.53113.4878.9688.3752.4054.2156.0858.0260.02
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 2.280.591.560.440.390.410.420.440.450.47
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----2.762.862.953.063.163.27
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 3.814.692.401.282.791.371.411.461.511.57
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -0.15-0.18-0.16-0.06-0.21-0.08-0.08-0.08-0.08-0.09
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 1.89
Beta 1.146
Diluted Shares Outstanding 86.34
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 0.00
After-tax Cost of Debt 5.00%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.374
Total Debt -
Total Equity 163.17
Total Capital 163.17
Debt Weighting 0.00
Equity Weighting 100.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 4.497.2212.525.371.982.052.122.192.272.35
EBITDA -69.89-68.61-112.01-43.12-173.07-53.02-54.85-56.74-58.70-60.73
EBIT -70.98-69.47-112.58-43.52-173.24-53.25-55.09-56.99-58.96-61
Tax Rate 0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
EBIAT -70.98-69.47-112.58-43.52-173.24-53.25-55.09-56.99-58.96-61
Depreciation 1.090.860.560.400.170.230.240.250.260.27
Accounts Receivable -1.69-0.971.110.05-0.01-0.01-0.01-0.02-0.02
Inventories ------0.10-0.10-0.10-0.11-0.11
Accounts Payable -0.88-2.29-1.121.51-1.420.050.050.050.05
Capital Expenditure -0.15-0.18-0.16-0.06-0.21-0.08-0.08-0.08-0.08-0.09
UFCF -70.04-66.22-115.43-43.18-171.72-54.63-55-56.89-58.86-60.89
WACC
PV UFCF -49.95-45.98-43.49-41.14-38.91
SUM PV UFCF -219.46

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.37
Free cash flow (t + 1) -62.11
Terminal Value -842.72
Present Value of Terminal Value -538.51

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -757.96
Net Debt -15.40
Equity Value -742.57
Shares Outstanding 86.34
Equity Value Per Share -8.60