Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Concert Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (CNCE)
$8.37
0.00 (0.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 143.89 | 10.50 | 1.08 | 7.90 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.12 | 0.22 | 0.41 | 0.76 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 97.16 | -54.46 | -76.50 | -73.25 | 1.40 | -0.51 | -0.96 | -1.81 | -3.40 | -6.39 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 96.15 | -55.71 | -78.17 | -74.85 | -0.08 | -1.09 | -2.05 | -3.85 | -7.24 | -13.61 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 1.01 | 1.25 | 1.66 | 1.61 | 1.48 | 0.58 | 1.09 | 2.04 | 3.84 | 7.22 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 203.16 | 160.84 | 111.81 | 131.94 | 143.10 | 55.46 | 104.22 | 195.85 | 368.04 | 691.61 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 0.78 | 16.57 | 0.33 | 3.18 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.21 | 0.39 | 0.73 | 1.37 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 0.66 | 1.28 | 0.88 | 0.23 | 2.61 | 0.99 | 1.86 | 3.50 | 6.58 | 12.36 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -0.95 | -2.87 | -0.69 | -0.21 | -0.26 | -0.11 | -0.20 | -0.38 | -0.71 | -1.34 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 8.37 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.521 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 34.41 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 0.00 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 5.00% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 6.067 |
| Total Debt | 1.16 |
| Total Equity | 287.97 |
| Total Capital | 289.12 |
| Debt Weighting | 0.40 |
| Equity Weighting | 99.60 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 143.89 | 10.50 | 1.08 | 7.90 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.12 | 0.22 | 0.41 | 0.76 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 97.16 | -54.46 | -76.50 | -73.25 | 1.40 | -0.51 | -0.96 | -1.81 | -3.40 | -6.39 |
| EBIT | 96.15 | -55.71 | -78.17 | -74.85 | -0.08 | -1.09 | -2.05 | -3.85 | -7.24 | -13.61 |
| Tax Rate | -0.31% | -0.56% | 0.00% | 0.11% | 0.00% | -0.15% | -0.15% | -0.15% | -0.15% | -0.15% |
| EBIAT | 96.46 | -56.02 | -78.17 | -74.77 | -0.08 | -1.09 | -2.05 | -3.86 | -7.25 | -13.63 |
| Depreciation | 1.01 | 1.25 | 1.66 | 1.61 | 1.48 | 0.58 | 1.09 | 2.04 | 3.84 | 7.22 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -15.79 | 16.24 | -2.84 | 2.96 | 0.11 | -0.10 | -0.18 | -0.34 | -0.64 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | 0.62 | -0.40 | -0.65 | 2.38 | -1.61 | 0.87 | 1.64 | 3.08 | 5.78 |
| Capital Expenditure | -0.95 | -2.87 | -0.69 | -0.21 | -0.26 | -0.11 | -0.20 | -0.38 | -0.71 | -1.34 |
| UFCF | 96.52 | -72.82 | -61.34 | -76.87 | 6.48 | -2.13 | -0.39 | -0.74 | -1.39 | -2.61 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -2.01 | -0.35 | -0.62 | -1.10 | -1.95 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -6.02 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 6.06 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -2.66 |
| Terminal Value | -65.59 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -48.87 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -54.89 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -140.48 |
| Equity Value | 85.59 |
| Shares Outstanding | 34.41 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 2.49 |