Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ.TO)

$77.73

+0.70 (+0.91%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 85.80 | 77.73 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	17,669	22,282	24,394	17,491	32,854	40,666.86	50,337.66	62,308.23	77,125.47	95,466.32
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	8,787	9,481	11,414	6,001	16,378	18,156.23	22,473.89	27,818.30	34,433.64	42,622.15
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	-	-	-	-	-	18,156.23	22,473.89	27,818.30	34,433.64	42,622.15
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	1,030	625	629	489	1,053	1,400.05	1,732.99	2,145.11	2,655.23	3,286.66
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	2,719	1,148	2,478	2,499	3,111	4,429.06	5,482.32	6,786.04	8,399.80	10,397.32
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	894	955	1,152	1,060	1,548	2,020.34	2,500.79	3,095.49	3,831.62	4,742.80
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	775	779	816	667	803	1,422.11	1,760.30	2,178.91	2,697.07	3,338.44
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-4,698	-4,441	-3,608	-2,560	-4,493	-7,289.30	-9,022.73	-11,168.39	-13,824.29	-17,111.79
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 77.73
Beta	2.053
Diluted Shares Outstanding	1,186.56
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	22.67
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.91%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	13.220
Total Debt	14,694
Total Equity	92,231.08
Total Capital	106,925.08
Debt Weighting	13.74
Equity Weighting	86.26
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	17,669	22,282	24,394	17,491	32,854	40,666.86	50,337.66	62,308.23	77,125.47	95,466.32
EBITDA	8,787	9,481	11,414	6,001	16,378	18,156.23	22,473.89	27,818.30	34,433.64	42,622.15
EBIT	-	-	-	-	-	18,156.23	22,473.89	27,818.30	34,433.64	42,622.15
Tax Rate	16.57%	26.43%	-9.28%	50.17%	22.67%	21.31%	21.31%	21.31%	21.31%	21.31%
EBIAT	-	-	-	-	-	14,286.64	17,684.08	21,889.45	27,094.88	33,538.19
Depreciation	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Accounts Receivable	-	1,571	-1,330	-21	-612	-1,318.06	-1,053.26	-1,303.72	-1,613.76	-1,997.52
Inventories	-	-61	-197	92	-488	-472.34	-480.45	-594.70	-736.13	-911.18
Accounts Payable	-	4	37	-149	136	619.11	338.19	418.61	518.16	641.38
Capital Expenditure	-4,698	-4,441	-3,608	-2,560	-4,493	-7,289.30	-9,022.73	-11,168.39	-13,824.29	-17,111.79
UFCF	-	-	-	-	-	5,826.05	7,465.83	9,241.24	11,438.86	14,159.08
WACC
PV UFCF						5,204.62	5,958.09	6,588.32	7,285.20	8,055.80
SUM PV UFCF										33,092.03

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	11.94
Free cash flow (t + 1)	14,442.27
Terminal Value	145,294.43
Present Value of Terminal Value	82,665.15

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	115,757.18
Net Debt	13,950
Equity Value	101,807.18
Shares Outstanding	1,186.56
Equity Value Per Share	85.80