Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ.TO)

$77.73

+0.70 (+0.91%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 85.80 | 77.73 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 17,66922,28224,39417,49132,85440,666.8650,337.6662,308.2377,125.4795,466.32
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 8,7879,48111,4146,00116,37818,156.2322,473.8927,818.3034,433.6442,622.15
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -----18,156.2322,473.8927,818.3034,433.6442,622.15
EBIT (%)
Depreciation ----------
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 1,0306256294891,0531,400.051,732.992,145.112,655.233,286.66
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 2,7191,1482,4782,4993,1114,429.065,482.326,786.048,399.8010,397.32
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 8949551,1521,0601,5482,020.342,500.793,095.493,831.624,742.80
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 7757798166678031,422.111,760.302,178.912,697.073,338.44
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -4,698-4,441-3,608-2,560-4,493-7,289.30-9,022.73-11,168.39-13,824.29-17,111.79
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 77.73
Beta 2.053
Diluted Shares Outstanding 1,186.56
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 22.67
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.91%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 13.220
Total Debt 14,694
Total Equity 92,231.08
Total Capital 106,925.08
Debt Weighting 13.74
Equity Weighting 86.26
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 17,66922,28224,39417,49132,85440,666.8650,337.6662,308.2377,125.4795,466.32
EBITDA 8,7879,48111,4146,00116,37818,156.2322,473.8927,818.3034,433.6442,622.15
EBIT -----18,156.2322,473.8927,818.3034,433.6442,622.15
Tax Rate 16.57%26.43%-9.28%50.17%22.67%21.31%21.31%21.31%21.31%21.31%
EBIAT -----14,286.6417,684.0821,889.4527,094.8833,538.19
Depreciation ----------
Accounts Receivable -1,571-1,330-21-612-1,318.06-1,053.26-1,303.72-1,613.76-1,997.52
Inventories --61-19792-488-472.34-480.45-594.70-736.13-911.18
Accounts Payable -437-149136619.11338.19418.61518.16641.38
Capital Expenditure -4,698-4,441-3,608-2,560-4,493-7,289.30-9,022.73-11,168.39-13,824.29-17,111.79
UFCF -----5,826.057,465.839,241.2411,438.8614,159.08
WACC
PV UFCF 5,204.625,958.096,588.327,285.208,055.80
SUM PV UFCF 33,092.03

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 11.94
Free cash flow (t + 1) 14,442.27
Terminal Value 145,294.43
Present Value of Terminal Value 82,665.15

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 115,757.18
Net Debt 13,950
Equity Value 101,807.18
Shares Outstanding 1,186.56
Equity Value Per Share 85.80