Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Confidence Petroleum India Limited (CONFIPET.NS)

69.7 ₹

-0.65 (-0.92%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -32.64 | 69.7 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 6,138.9810,045.3010,777.758,631.0114,276.9018,432.1423,796.7630,722.7239,664.4651,208.67
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 736.841,322.211,3091,239.441,945.902,407.263,107.884,012.425,180.226,687.90
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 491.821,024.25796.91717.541,278.401,580.362,040.322,634.153,400.814,390.60
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 245.02297.95512.09521.90667.50826.901,067.561,378.271,779.412,297.30
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 91.62249.29103.8790.52783.10422.90545.98704.88910.041,174.90
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 614.01767.63738.30778.041,114.701,523.081,966.372,538.673,277.554,231.47
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 285.28216.78244.1377.89174.50412.70532.81687.88888.091,146.56
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -632.79-1,423.52-842.04-1,092.20-1,604.22-2,071.12-2,673.92-3,452.15-4,456.89-5,754.05
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 69.7
Beta 1.252
Diluted Shares Outstanding 284.01
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 22.89
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.86%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.442
Total Debt -
Total Equity 19,795.64
Total Capital 19,795.64
Debt Weighting 0.00
Equity Weighting 100.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 6,138.9810,045.3010,777.758,631.0114,276.9018,432.1423,796.7630,722.7239,664.4651,208.67
EBITDA 736.841,322.211,3091,239.441,945.902,407.263,107.884,012.425,180.226,687.90
EBIT 491.821,024.25796.91717.541,278.401,580.362,040.322,634.153,400.814,390.60
Tax Rate 28.66%26.12%23.02%24.58%22.89%25.05%25.05%25.05%25.05%25.05%
EBIAT 350.86756.75613.45541.20985.771,184.431,529.161,974.212,548.803,290.62
Depreciation 245.02297.95512.09521.90667.50826.901,067.561,378.271,779.412,297.30
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories --153.6229.33-39.74-336.66-408.38-443.29-572.31-738.87-953.92
Accounts Payable --68.5027.35-166.2496.60238.20120.11155.07200.21258.48
Capital Expenditure -632.79-1,423.52-842.04-1,092.20-1,604.22-2,071.12-2,673.92-3,452.15-4,456.89-5,754.05
UFCF -36.91-590.94340.18-235.08-191.01-229.98-400.37-516.90-667.34-861.57
WACC
PV UFCF -210.14-334.28-394.35-465.20-548.79
SUM PV UFCF -1,952.77

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.44
Free cash flow (t + 1) -878.80
Terminal Value -11,811.83
Present Value of Terminal Value -7,523.79

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -9,476.56
Net Debt -206.30
Equity Value -9,270.26
Shares Outstanding 284.01
Equity Value Per Share -32.64