Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Confidence Petroleum India Limited (CONFIPET.NS)

69.7 ₹

-0.65 (-0.92%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -32.64 | 69.7 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	6,138.98	10,045.30	10,777.75	8,631.01	14,276.90	18,432.14	23,796.76	30,722.72	39,664.46	51,208.67
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	736.84	1,322.21	1,309	1,239.44	1,945.90	2,407.26	3,107.88	4,012.42	5,180.22	6,687.90
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	491.82	1,024.25	796.91	717.54	1,278.40	1,580.36	2,040.32	2,634.15	3,400.81	4,390.60
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	245.02	297.95	512.09	521.90	667.50	826.90	1,067.56	1,378.27	1,779.41	2,297.30
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	91.62	249.29	103.87	90.52	783.10	422.90	545.98	704.88	910.04	1,174.90
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	614.01	767.63	738.30	778.04	1,114.70	1,523.08	1,966.37	2,538.67	3,277.55	4,231.47
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	285.28	216.78	244.13	77.89	174.50	412.70	532.81	687.88	888.09	1,146.56
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-632.79	-1,423.52	-842.04	-1,092.20	-1,604.22	-2,071.12	-2,673.92	-3,452.15	-4,456.89	-5,754.05
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 69.7
Beta	1.252
Diluted Shares Outstanding	284.01
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	22.89
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.86%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	9.442
Total Debt	-
Total Equity	19,795.64
Total Capital	19,795.64
Debt Weighting	0.00
Equity Weighting	100.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	6,138.98	10,045.30	10,777.75	8,631.01	14,276.90	18,432.14	23,796.76	30,722.72	39,664.46	51,208.67
EBITDA	736.84	1,322.21	1,309	1,239.44	1,945.90	2,407.26	3,107.88	4,012.42	5,180.22	6,687.90
EBIT	491.82	1,024.25	796.91	717.54	1,278.40	1,580.36	2,040.32	2,634.15	3,400.81	4,390.60
Tax Rate	28.66%	26.12%	23.02%	24.58%	22.89%	25.05%	25.05%	25.05%	25.05%	25.05%
EBIAT	350.86	756.75	613.45	541.20	985.77	1,184.43	1,529.16	1,974.21	2,548.80	3,290.62
Depreciation	245.02	297.95	512.09	521.90	667.50	826.90	1,067.56	1,378.27	1,779.41	2,297.30
Accounts Receivable	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Inventories	-	-153.62	29.33	-39.74	-336.66	-408.38	-443.29	-572.31	-738.87	-953.92
Accounts Payable	-	-68.50	27.35	-166.24	96.60	238.20	120.11	155.07	200.21	258.48
Capital Expenditure	-632.79	-1,423.52	-842.04	-1,092.20	-1,604.22	-2,071.12	-2,673.92	-3,452.15	-4,456.89	-5,754.05
UFCF	-36.91	-590.94	340.18	-235.08	-191.01	-229.98	-400.37	-516.90	-667.34	-861.57
WACC
PV UFCF						-210.14	-334.28	-394.35	-465.20	-548.79
SUM PV UFCF										-1,952.77

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	9.44
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-878.80
Terminal Value	-11,811.83
Present Value of Terminal Value	-7,523.79

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-9,476.56
Net Debt	-206.30
Equity Value	-9,270.26
Shares Outstanding	284.01
Equity Value Per Share	-32.64