Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Conn's, Inc. (CONN)

$7.99

+0.05 (+0.63%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 23.24 | 7.99 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 1,516.031,549.811,543.691,386.031,590.031,615.231,640.821,666.821,693.241,720.07
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 142.60191.07170.2772.12212.92165.91168.54171.21173.93176.68
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 111.79159.48133.4331.05167.47126.25128.25130.28132.35134.44
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 30.8131.5836.8441.0745.4539.6640.2940.9341.5842.24
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 9.295.915.489.707.718.198.328.458.588.72
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 740.37720.25746.81578.51525.59705.80716.98728.34739.88751.61
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 211.89220.03219.76196.46246.83232.94236.63240.38244.19248.06
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 71.6271.1248.5569.3774.7071.5972.7373.8875.0576.24
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -16.92-32.81-57.55-55.93-44.86-44.64-45.34-46.06-46.79-47.53
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 7.99
Beta 2.364
Diluted Shares Outstanding 29.06
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 23.65
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.17%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 14.917
Total Debt 908.01
Total Equity 232.19
Total Capital 1,140.20
Debt Weighting 79.64
Equity Weighting 20.36
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 1,516.031,549.811,543.691,386.031,590.031,615.231,640.821,666.821,693.241,720.07
EBITDA 142.60191.07170.2772.12212.92165.91168.54171.21173.93176.68
EBIT 111.79159.48133.4331.05167.47126.25128.25130.28132.35134.44
Tax Rate 79.57%23.69%24.64%83.77%23.65%47.06%47.06%47.06%47.06%47.06%
EBIAT 22.84121.70100.555.04127.8766.8367.8968.9770.0671.17
Depreciation 30.8131.5836.8441.0745.4539.6640.2940.9341.5842.24
Accounts Receivable -20.12-26.56168.3052.92-180.21-11.18-11.36-11.54-11.72
Inventories --8.140.2823.29-50.3613.88-3.69-3.75-3.81-3.87
Accounts Payable --0.50-22.5620.815.34-3.111.131.151.171.19
Capital Expenditure -16.92-32.81-57.55-55.93-44.86-44.64-45.34-46.06-46.79-47.53
UFCF 36.73131.9531202.59136.36-107.5849.1049.8850.6751.47
WACC
PV UFCF -102.6944.7443.3842.0740.79
SUM PV UFCF 68.28

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.76
Free cash flow (t + 1) 52.50
Terminal Value 1,902.11
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,507.50

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,575.78
Net Debt 900.30
Equity Value 675.48
Shares Outstanding 29.06
Equity Value Per Share 23.24