Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Covivio (COV.PA)

48.1 €

-1.42 (-2.87%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -163.21 | 48.1 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 927.41955.89961.32866.84866.31852.77839.44826.33813.41800.70
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,243.741,237.381,139.47667.201,330.931,044.971,028.641,012.56996.74981.17
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,225.961,042.871,066.29571.291,238.71956.98942.03927.31912.82898.55
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 17.78194.5173.1895.9192.2287.9886.6185.2683.9282.61
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 1,296.641,172.451,302.081,246.151,062.991,133.121,115.411,097.981,080.831,063.94
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 43.2495.81232.55249.33211.97157.09154.64152.22149.84147.50
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 167.62213.18140.67127.20149.30148.24145.92143.64141.40139.19
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1,114.26-991.34-674.24-631.33-697.51-762.96-751.03-739.30-727.74-716.37
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 48.1
Beta 1.558
Diluted Shares Outstanding 91.38
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 36.87
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.76%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.051
Total Debt 12,139.38
Total Equity 4,395.55
Total Capital 16,534.93
Debt Weighting 73.42
Equity Weighting 26.58
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 927.41955.89961.32866.84866.31852.77839.44826.33813.41800.70
EBITDA 1,243.741,237.381,139.47667.201,330.931,044.971,028.641,012.56996.74981.17
EBIT 1,225.961,042.871,066.29571.291,238.71956.98942.03927.31912.82898.55
Tax Rate 37.52%40.49%46.62%20.64%36.87%36.43%36.43%36.43%36.43%36.43%
EBIAT 765.99620.60569.16453.36781.98608.36598.85589.49580.28571.22
Depreciation 17.78194.5173.1895.9192.2287.9886.6185.2683.9282.61
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories --52.57-136.74-16.7937.3654.882.452.422.382.34
Accounts Payable -45.56-72.51-13.4722.10-1.06-2.32-2.28-2.24-2.21
Capital Expenditure -1,114.26-991.34-674.24-631.33-697.51-762.96-751.03-739.30-727.74-716.37
UFCF -330.49-183.24-241.16-112.32236.15-12.79-65.43-64.41-63.40-62.41
WACC
PV UFCF -12.36-61.09-58.11-55.27-52.58
SUM PV UFCF -239.42

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 3.49
Free cash flow (t + 1) -63.66
Terminal Value -4,272.58
Present Value of Terminal Value -3,599.13

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -3,838.55
Net Debt 11,076.39
Equity Value -14,914.93
Shares Outstanding 91.38
Equity Value Per Share -163.21