Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Covivio (COV.PA)

46.62 €

-0.80 (-1.69%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -18.30 | 46.62 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	955.89	961.32	866.84	866.31	905.98	895.24	884.63	874.14	863.78	853.54
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	1,470.71	1,846.44	859.11	1,602.07	895.42	1,304.91	1,289.44	1,274.16	1,259.05	1,244.12
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	1,276.20	1,773.26	763.20	1,509.85	833.15	1,203.67	1,189.40	1,175.30	1,161.37	1,147.60
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	194.51	73.18	95.91	92.22	62.27	101.24	100.04	98.85	97.68	96.52
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	1,172.45	1,302.08	1,246.15	1,062.99	461.54	1,030.44	1,018.22	1,006.15	994.22	982.44
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	1,063.42	1,069.46	964.34	963.76	1,007.89	995.94	984.14	972.47	960.94	949.55
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	95.81	232.55	249.33	211.97	264.03	208.75	206.28	203.83	201.41	199.03
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	213.18	140.67	127.20	149.30	146.85	152.28	150.48	148.69	146.93	145.19
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-991.34	-674.24	-631.33	-697.51	-567.83	-698.05	-689.78	-681.60	-673.52	-665.53
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 46.62
Beta	1.487
Diluted Shares Outstanding	94.52
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	10.73
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.80%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	11.274
Total Debt	11,274.75
Total Equity	4,406.38
Total Capital	15,681.13
Debt Weighting	71.90
Equity Weighting	28.10
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	955.89	961.32	866.84	866.31	905.98	895.24	884.63	874.14	863.78	853.54
EBITDA	1,470.71	1,846.44	859.11	1,602.07	895.42	1,304.91	1,289.44	1,274.16	1,259.05	1,244.12
EBIT	1,276.20	1,773.26	763.20	1,509.85	833.15	1,203.67	1,189.40	1,175.30	1,161.37	1,147.60
Tax Rate	40.49%	9.83%	20.64%	11.55%	10.73%	18.65%	18.65%	18.65%	18.65%	18.65%
EBIAT	759.46	1,598.86	605.65	1,335.43	743.78	979.19	967.58	956.11	944.78	933.58
Depreciation	194.51	73.18	95.91	92.22	62.27	101.24	100.04	98.85	97.68	96.52
Accounts Receivable	-	-6.04	105.11	0.59	-44.14	11.95	11.81	11.67	11.53	11.39
Inventories	-	-136.74	-16.79	37.36	-52.06	55.28	2.47	2.45	2.42	2.39
Accounts Payable	-	-72.51	-13.47	22.10	-2.45	5.44	-1.81	-1.78	-1.76	-1.74
Capital Expenditure	-991.34	-674.24	-631.33	-697.51	-567.83	-698.05	-689.78	-681.60	-673.52	-665.53
UFCF	-37.37	782.51	145.09	790.18	139.57	455.04	390.32	385.70	381.12	376.61
WACC
PV UFCF						429.69	348.04	324.76	303.03	282.75
SUM PV UFCF										1,688.27

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	5.90
Free cash flow (t + 1)	384.14
Terminal Value	9,849.67
Present Value of Terminal Value	7,395.06

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	9,083.33
Net Debt	10,813.21
Equity Value	-1,729.88
Shares Outstanding	94.52
Equity Value Per Share	-18.30