Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Covivio Hotels (COVH.PA)

13.75 €

+0.15 (+1.10%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -86.78 | 13.75 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 208.88483.42477.73250.74299.44375.92471.94592.48743.80933.78
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 278.25439.46477.40-274.97191.38209.23262.67329.76413.99519.73
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 278.21263.79435.30-325.75130.49144.76181.73228.15286.42359.58
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 0.04175.6742.0950.7760.8964.4780.94101.61127.57160.15
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 33.64381.40164.73101.76145.18164.32206.29258.97325.12408.16
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories -2.242.261.711.822.092.633.304.145.20
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 38.0569.3047.8639.6247.1355.7269.9587.82110.25138.41
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -512.19-179.43-88.32-52.48-73.75-260.41-326.93-410.43-515.26-646.86
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 13.75
Beta 1.127
Diluted Shares Outstanding 129.03
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 52.35
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.79%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.124
Total Debt 2,955.10
Total Equity 1,774.16
Total Capital 4,729.26
Debt Weighting 62.49
Equity Weighting 37.51
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 208.88483.42477.73250.74299.44375.92471.94592.48743.80933.78
EBITDA 278.25439.46477.40-274.97191.38209.23262.67329.76413.99519.73
EBIT 278.21263.79435.30-325.75130.49144.76181.73228.15286.42359.58
Tax Rate 12.45%20.44%13.46%11.54%52.35%22.05%22.05%22.05%22.05%22.05%
EBIAT 243.58209.88376.71-288.1662.17112.84141.66177.85223.27280.30
Depreciation 0.04175.6742.0950.7760.8964.4780.94101.61127.57160.15
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories ---0.030.55-0.11-0.27-0.53-0.67-0.84-1.06
Accounts Payable -31.25-21.44-8.237.518.5914.2317.8722.4328.16
Capital Expenditure -512.19-179.44-88.32-52.48-73.75-260.41-326.93-410.43-515.26-646.86
UFCF -268.57237.36309.03-297.5556.71-74.78-90.63-113.77-142.83-179.31
WACC
PV UFCF -71.96-83.92-101.38-122.47-147.95
SUM PV UFCF -527.68

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 3.92
Free cash flow (t + 1) -182.90
Terminal Value -9,526
Present Value of Terminal Value -7,859.86

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -8,387.53
Net Debt 2,809.92
Equity Value -11,197.45
Shares Outstanding 129.03
Equity Value Per Share -86.78