Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Crescent Point Energy Corp. (CPG)

$7.63

-0.10 (-1.29%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -13.10 | 7.63 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	2,830.90	3,320.50	2,877.10	1,488	2,829.40	3,153.42	3,514.55	3,917.04	4,365.62	4,865.57
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	1,880.10	1,913.70	1,691.40	1,217.60	4,038.80	2,569.45	2,863.71	3,191.66	3,557.17	3,964.53
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	138.70	-3,371	-1,021.90	-3,052.90	-219.24	-2,176.22	-2,425.44	-2,703.20	-3,012.77	-3,357.79
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	1,741.40	5,284.70	2,713.30	4,270.50	4,258.04	4,745.67	5,289.14	5,894.86	6,569.94	7,322.33
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	62.40	15.30	56.90	8.80	13.50	36.02	40.14	44.74	49.87	55.58
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	380.20	322.60	295.90	200.50	314.30	365.88	407.78	454.48	506.53	564.54
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	613.30	532.90	542.52	280.59	533.53	594.63	662.73	738.62	823.21	917.48
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-1,854.70	-1,817.80	-1,306.20	-698.80	-676.10	-1,491.69	-1,662.52	-1,852.91	-2,065.10	-2,301.60
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 7.63
Beta	3.053
Diluted Shares Outstanding	529.34
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	25.28
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.15%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	17.400
Total Debt	2,111.60
Total Equity	4,038.86
Total Capital	6,150.46
Debt Weighting	34.33
Equity Weighting	65.67
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	2,830.90	3,320.50	2,877.10	1,488	2,829.40	3,153.42	3,514.55	3,917.04	4,365.62	4,865.57
EBITDA	1,880.10	1,913.70	1,691.40	1,217.60	4,038.80	2,569.45	2,863.71	3,191.66	3,557.17	3,964.53
EBIT	138.70	-3,371	-1,021.90	-3,052.90	-219.24	-2,176.22	-2,425.44	-2,703.20	-3,012.77	-3,357.79
Tax Rate	-425.42%	26.40%	13.34%	19.94%	25.28%	-68.10%	-68.10%	-68.10%	-68.10%	-68.10%
EBIAT	728.76	-2,481.18	-885.62	-2,444.16	-163.82	-3,658.11	-4,077.04	-4,543.95	-5,064.32	-5,644.28
Depreciation	1,741.40	5,284.70	2,713.30	4,270.50	4,258.04	4,745.67	5,289.14	5,894.86	6,569.94	7,322.33
Accounts Receivable	-	57.60	26.70	95.40	-113.80	-51.58	-41.90	-46.70	-52.05	-58.01
Inventories	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Accounts Payable	-	-80.40	9.62	-261.94	252.94	61.10	68.10	75.90	84.59	94.27
Capital Expenditure	-1,854.70	-1,817.80	-1,306.20	-698.80	-676.10	-1,491.69	-1,662.52	-1,852.91	-2,065.10	-2,301.60
UFCF	615.46	962.92	557.80	961	3,557.26	-394.61	-424.22	-472.80	-526.94	-587.29
WACC
PV UFCF						-350.74	-335.13	-331.97	-328.85	-325.76
SUM PV UFCF										-1,672.45

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	12.51
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-599.04
Terminal Value	-5,699.68
Present Value of Terminal Value	-3,161.51

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-4,833.96
Net Debt	2,098.10
Equity Value	-6,932.06
Shares Outstanding	529.34
Equity Value Per Share	-13.10