Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Crescent Point Energy Corp. (CPG)

$7.63

-0.10 (-1.29%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -13.10 | 7.63 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,830.903,320.502,877.101,4882,829.403,153.423,514.553,917.044,365.624,865.57
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,880.101,913.701,691.401,217.604,038.802,569.452,863.713,191.663,557.173,964.53
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 138.70-3,371-1,021.90-3,052.90-219.24-2,176.22-2,425.44-2,703.20-3,012.77-3,357.79
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1,741.405,284.702,713.304,270.504,258.044,745.675,289.145,894.866,569.947,322.33
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 62.4015.3056.908.8013.5036.0240.1444.7449.8755.58
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 380.20322.60295.90200.50314.30365.88407.78454.48506.53564.54
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 613.30532.90542.52280.59533.53594.63662.73738.62823.21917.48
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1,854.70-1,817.80-1,306.20-698.80-676.10-1,491.69-1,662.52-1,852.91-2,065.10-2,301.60
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 7.63
Beta 3.053
Diluted Shares Outstanding 529.34
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 25.28
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.15%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 17.400
Total Debt 2,111.60
Total Equity 4,038.86
Total Capital 6,150.46
Debt Weighting 34.33
Equity Weighting 65.67
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,830.903,320.502,877.101,4882,829.403,153.423,514.553,917.044,365.624,865.57
EBITDA 1,880.101,913.701,691.401,217.604,038.802,569.452,863.713,191.663,557.173,964.53
EBIT 138.70-3,371-1,021.90-3,052.90-219.24-2,176.22-2,425.44-2,703.20-3,012.77-3,357.79
Tax Rate -425.42%26.40%13.34%19.94%25.28%-68.10%-68.10%-68.10%-68.10%-68.10%
EBIAT 728.76-2,481.18-885.62-2,444.16-163.82-3,658.11-4,077.04-4,543.95-5,064.32-5,644.28
Depreciation 1,741.405,284.702,713.304,270.504,258.044,745.675,289.145,894.866,569.947,322.33
Accounts Receivable -57.6026.7095.40-113.80-51.58-41.90-46.70-52.05-58.01
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable --80.409.62-261.94252.9461.1068.1075.9084.5994.27
Capital Expenditure -1,854.70-1,817.80-1,306.20-698.80-676.10-1,491.69-1,662.52-1,852.91-2,065.10-2,301.60
UFCF 615.46962.92557.809613,557.26-394.61-424.22-472.80-526.94-587.29
WACC
PV UFCF -350.74-335.13-331.97-328.85-325.76
SUM PV UFCF -1,672.45

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 12.51
Free cash flow (t + 1) -599.04
Terminal Value -5,699.68
Present Value of Terminal Value -3,161.51

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -4,833.96
Net Debt 2,098.10
Equity Value -6,932.06
Shares Outstanding 529.34
Equity Value Per Share -13.10