Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Capital Power Corporation (CPX.TO)

$49.64

-0.66 (-1.31%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 107.36 | 49.64 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,0461,2491,7131,7911,7572,017.092,315.682,658.473,0523,503.79
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 473777730862837991.651,138.451,306.971,500.441,722.55
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 202477257384298447.42513.65589.68676.97777.19
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 271300473478539544.24624.80717.29823.47945.37
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 52182248367387308.77354.47406.95467.19536.35
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 253439293463432511.85587.62674.61774.47889.11
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 120200203220217258.07296.27340.12390.47448.27
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 385763786981.3293.35107.17123.04141.25
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -218-355-635-306-622-560.03-642.93-738.10-847.36-972.79
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 49.64
Beta 0.632
Diluted Shares Outstanding 112.81
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 33.33
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.67%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.862
Total Debt 3,497
Total Equity 5,599.76
Total Capital 9,096.76
Debt Weighting 38.44
Equity Weighting 61.56
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,0461,2491,7131,7911,7572,017.092,315.682,658.473,0523,503.79
EBITDA 473777730862837991.651,138.451,306.971,500.441,722.55
EBIT 202477257384298447.42513.65589.68676.97777.19
Tax Rate -54.84%23.89%-10.62%35.85%33.33%5.52%5.52%5.52%5.52%5.52%
EBIAT 312.77363.05284.29246.34198.67422.71485.28557.12639.59734.26
Depreciation 271300473478539544.24624.80717.29823.47945.37
Accounts Receivable --186146-17031-79.85-75.77-86.99-99.86-114.64
Inventories --80-3-173-41.07-38.20-43.86-50.35-57.80
Accounts Payable -19615-912.3212.0413.8215.8618.21
Capital Expenditure -218-355-635-306-622-560.03-642.93-738.10-847.36-972.79
UFCF 365.7761.05271.29246.34140.67298.31365.22419.28481.35552.60
WACC
PV UFCF 283.43329.69359.62392.26427.86
SUM PV UFCF 1,792.86

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.25
Free cash flow (t + 1) 563.65
Terminal Value 17,343.23
Present Value of Terminal Value 13,428.25

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 15,221.11
Net Debt 3,110
Equity Value 12,111.11
Shares Outstanding 112.81
Equity Value Per Share 107.36