Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

California Resources Corporation (CRC)

$42.78

+0.85 (+2.03%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 2,105,503.30 | 42.78 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,0963,0632,693382,56544,794.32782,273.0213,661,355.69238,577,369.994,166,435,802.94
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 77707356-148270-30,368.06-530,337.65-9,261,640.27-161,742,203.88-2,824,612,028.89
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 77707356-1142,5659,711.06169,590.702,961,675.4951,721,715.30903,250,825.54
EBIT (%)
Depreciation ----34-2,295-40,079.12-699,928.35-12,223,315.76-213,463,919.18-3,727,862,854.43
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 201717283057,858.31137,234.952,396,625.5641,853,871.37730,922,082.67
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 3533673475.28356.616,227.69108,758.311,899,319.0233,169,075.36579,253,695.01
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 566967611,076.9118,806.74328,434.715,735,674.56100,165,911.941,749,264,155.97
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 2573902962123,808.2666,506.141,161,441.0520,283,019.99354,215,911.896,185,908,819.88
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -344-621-493.98-6.97-470.50-8,216.72-143,494.12-2,505,933.49-43,762,788.55-764,258,777.14
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 42.78
Beta 4.406
Diluted Shares Outstanding 83
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -167.25
After-tax Cost of Debt 9.17%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 24.553
Total Debt 589
Total Equity 3,550.74
Total Capital 4,139.74
Debt Weighting 14.23
Equity Weighting 85.77
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,0963,0632,693382,56544,794.32782,273.0213,661,355.69238,577,369.994,166,435,802.94
EBITDA 77707356-148270-30,368.06-530,337.65-9,261,640.27-161,742,203.88-2,824,612,028.89
EBIT 77707356-1142,5659,711.06169,590.702,961,675.4951,721,715.30903,250,825.54
Tax Rate -1.53%23.54%128.00%0.00%-167.25%-3.45%-3.45%-3.45%-3.45%-3.45%
EBIAT 78.18540.55-99.68-1146,854.9310,045.75175,435.643,063,749.6553,504,304.45934,381,369.42
Depreciation ----34-2,295-40,079.12-699,928.35-12,223,315.76-213,463,919.18-3,727,862,854.43
Accounts Receivable --1420341.72-351.33-5,871.08-102,530.62-1,790,560.70-31,269,756.34-546,084,619.65
Inventories --1326-1,015.91-17,729.84-309,627.97-5,407,239.84-94,430,237.38-1,649,098,244.03
Accounts Payable -133-94-843,596.2662,697.881,094,934.9119,121,578.94333,932,891.905,831,692,907.99
Capital Expenditure -344-621-493.98-6.97-470.50-8,216.72-143,494.12-2,505,933.49-43,762,788.55-764,258,777.14
UFCF -265.8225.55-665.66108.756,318.46846.8714,789.49258,278.794,510,494.9178,769,782.15
WACC
PV UFCF 692.129,878.12140,984.172,012,177.6628,718,536.39
SUM PV UFCF 30,882,268.46

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 22.36
Free cash flow (t + 1) 80,345,177.80
Terminal Value 394,622,680.74
Present Value of Terminal Value 143,874,789.40

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 174,757,057.86
Net Debt 284
Equity Value 174,756,773.86
Shares Outstanding 83
Equity Value Per Share 2,105,503.30