Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Cresud Sociedad Anónima, Comercial,... (CRESY)

$5.47

+0.02 (+0.37%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -2,305.82 | 5.47 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 77,91838,98682,665121,25642,41147,047.8352,191.6157,897.7664,227.7771,249.84
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 15,96617,5747,49352,70532,56118,336.7620,341.5322,565.4925,032.5927,769.42
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 11,10913,810-11236,28029,10913,935.6115,459.2017,149.3719,024.3221,104.27
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 4,8573,7647,60516,4253,4524,401.154,882.335,416.126,008.276,665.16
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 37,21668,762105,724122,49528,94349,052.0354,414.9260,364.1566,963.8174,285.02
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 14,82217,60827,29544,02322,88717,640.7619,569.4421,708.9924,082.4526,715.40
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 5,5953,2377,13511,84317,4047,049.497,820.218,675.209,623.6710,675.83
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 13,29817,89222,59935,82319,58515,621.8017,329.7519,224.4221,326.2423,657.86
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -4,153-3,070-8,525-10,159-2,107-3,468.69-3,847.93-4,268.63-4,735.32-5,253.03
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 5.47
Beta 1.656
Diluted Shares Outstanding 54.25
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 207.47
After-tax Cost of Debt -11.83%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.621
Total Debt 124,828
Total Equity 296.77
Total Capital 125,124.77
Debt Weighting 99.76
Equity Weighting 0.24
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 77,91838,98682,665121,25642,41147,047.8352,191.6157,897.7664,227.7771,249.84
EBITDA 15,96617,5747,49352,70532,56118,336.7620,341.5322,565.4925,032.5927,769.42
EBIT 11,10913,810-11236,28029,10913,935.6115,459.2017,149.3719,024.3221,104.27
Tax Rate 68.99%2.57%30.94%60.81%207.47%74.15%74.15%74.15%74.15%74.15%
EBIAT 3,445.3413,455.64-77.3514,218.86-31,284.403,601.843,995.634,432.484,917.085,454.67
Depreciation 4,8573,7647,60516,4253,4524,401.154,882.335,416.126,008.276,665.16
Accounts Receivable --2,786-9,687-16,72821,1365,246.24-1,928.68-2,139.54-2,373.46-2,632.95
Inventories -2,358-3,898-4,708-5,56110,354.51-770.73-854.99-948.47-1,052.16
Accounts Payable -4,5944,70713,224-16,238-3,963.201,707.941,894.682,101.822,331.62
Capital Expenditure -4,153-3,070-8,525-10,159-2,107-3,468.69-3,847.93-4,268.63-4,735.32-5,253.03
UFCF 4,149.3418,315.64-9,875.3512,272.86-30,602.4016,171.854,038.574,480.114,969.925,513.29
WACC
PV UFCF 18,331.275,189.126,525.108,205.0610,317.53
SUM PV UFCF 48,568.07

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) -11.78
Free cash flow (t + 1) 5,623.56
Terminal Value -40,809.55
Present Value of Terminal Value -76,370.65

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -27,802.58
Net Debt 97,299
Equity Value -125,101.58
Shares Outstanding 54.25
Equity Value Per Share -2,305.82