Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Cronos Group Inc. (CRON)

$2.82

-0.11 (-3.75%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 458.70 | 2.82 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 3.2511.5323.7546.7289.49212.40504.141,196.602,840.186,741.29
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 3.11-11.731,171.66-64.56-397.631,845.704,380.8510,398.1524,680.4858,580.25
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 2.32-13.571,167.75-71.60-413.731,807.504,290.1810,182.9424,169.6857,367.84
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 0.791.843.917.0516.0938.2090.67215.21510.801,212.41
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 7.3223.961,506.041,289.791,004.664,527.5210,746.2825,506.7960,541.54143,698.11
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 3.635.8016.5326.0427.83135.36321.29762.601,810.074,296.28
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 9.6515.1738.044432.80305.83725.891,722.934,089.469,706.52
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 6.2611.4035.3042.1011.22230.75547.691,299.973,085.547,323.66
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -33.96-84.26-38.95-35.39-451.17-1,070.87-2,541.75-6,032.96-14,319.51-33,988.02
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 2.82
Beta 1.462
Diluted Shares Outstanding 351.58
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -0.02
After-tax Cost of Debt 5.00%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.703
Total Debt 2.71
Total Equity 991.45
Total Capital 994.16
Debt Weighting 0.27
Equity Weighting 99.73
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 3.2511.5323.7546.7289.49212.40504.141,196.602,840.186,741.29
EBITDA 3.11-11.731,171.66-64.56-397.631,845.704,380.8510,398.1524,680.4858,580.25
EBIT 2.32-13.571,167.75-71.60-413.731,807.504,290.1810,182.9424,169.6857,367.84
Tax Rate 10.68%-1.36%-0.05%0.19%-0.02%1.89%1.89%1.89%1.89%1.89%
EBIAT 2.07-13.751,168.32-71.47-413.801,773.354,209.129,990.5423,713.0156,283.92
Depreciation 0.791.843.917.0516.0938.2090.67215.21510.801,212.41
Accounts Receivable --2.16-10.74-9.51-1.79-107.53-185.93-441.31-1,047.47-2,486.21
Inventories --5.51-22.88-5.9611.20-273.02-420.06-997.04-2,366.53-5,617.06
Accounts Payable -5.1423.906.80-30.88219.53316.94752.281,785.574,238.12
Capital Expenditure -33.96-84.26-38.95-35.39-451.17-1,070.87-2,541.75-6,032.96-14,319.51-33,988.02
UFCF -31.09-98.711,123.56-108.49-870.35579.661,468.993,486.718,275.8719,643.15
WACC
PV UFCF 523.671,198.952,570.935,512.9011,821.41
SUM PV UFCF 21,627.87

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.69
Free cash flow (t + 1) 20,036.02
Terminal Value 230,564.05
Present Value of Terminal Value 138,755.33

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 160,383.19
Net Debt -884.26
Equity Value 161,267.46
Shares Outstanding 351.58
Equity Value Per Share 458.70