Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Criteo S.A. (CRTO)

$27.18

-0.08 (-0.29%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 39.66 | 27.18 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,799.152,296.692,300.312,261.522,458.462,672.562,905.303,158.313,433.353,732.344,057.38
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 179.27229.35248.41229.11251.25273.13296.92322.78350.89381.44414.66
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 116.54125.32136.58132145.71158.40172.20187.19203.50221.22240.48
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 62.73104.02111.8397.11105.54114.73124.72135.58147.39160.22174.18
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 270.32414.11364.43418.76414.34450.43489.65532.29578.65629.04683.82
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 456.19557.02551.37568.70606.78659.62717.07779.51847.40921.191,001.41
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories -----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 365.79417.03425.38390.28456.28496.02539.21586.17637.22692.71753.03
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -85.13-122.20-116.98-82.72-115.52-125.58-136.52-148.41-161.33-175.38-190.65
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 27.18
Beta 0.866
Diluted Shares Outstanding 64.20
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 12.59
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.37%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.845
Total Debt 127.96
Total Equity 1,744.89
Total Capital 1,872.85
Debt Weighting 6.83
Equity Weighting 93.17
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,799.152,296.692,300.312,261.522,458.462,672.562,905.303,158.313,433.353,732.344,057.38
EBITDA 179.27229.35248.41229.11251.25273.13296.92322.78350.89381.44414.66
EBIT 116.54125.32136.58132145.71158.40172.20187.19203.50221.22240.48
Tax Rate 31.70%28.91%37.58%33.01%28.76%12.59%28.76%28.76%28.76%28.76%28.76%
EBIAT 79.5989.0985.2588.42103.81138.47122.68133.36144.97157.60171.32
Depreciation 62.73104.02111.8397.11105.54114.73124.72135.58147.39160.22174.18
Accounts Receivable --100.835.65-17.33-38.08-52.84-57.44-62.45-67.88-73.80-80.22
Inventories -----------
Accounts Payable -51.248.34-35.106639.7443.2046.9651.0555.4960.32
Capital Expenditure -85.13-122.20-116.98-82.72-115.52-54.98-136.52-148.41-161.33-175.38-190.65
UFCF 57.1921.3294.0950.39121.75114.5196.63105.05114.19124.14134.95
WACC
PV UFCF 121.75106.4183.4584.3085.1686.0386.91
SUM PV UFCF 458.25

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.61
Free cash flow (t + 1) 137.65
Terminal Value 2,453.61
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,700.37

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 2,158.61
Net Debt -387.57
Equity Value 2,546.18
Shares Outstanding 64.20
Equity Value Per Share 39.66