Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft (DB)

$8.34

-0.53 (-5.98%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 204.58 | 8.34 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 26,31825,09522,95023,79325,31325,114.7424,918.0424,722.8724,529.2424,337.12
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 12,92712,8568,6397,1738,69010,169.8710,090.2210,011.199,932.789,854.99
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -----10,169.8710,090.2210,011.199,932.789,854.99
EBIT (%)
Depreciation ----------
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 280,995242,605186,442224,994222,740234,692.01232,853.85231,030.09229,220.61227,425.30
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 86,98870,18166,94177,20674,79376,440.8975,842.1875,248.1774,658.8174,074.06
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 109,36593,19473,70781,55071,79087,119.9086,437.5685,760.5685,088.8684,422.42
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -485-465-327-512-550-474.43-470.72-467.03-463.37-459.74
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 8.34
Beta 1.419
Diluted Shares Outstanding 2,108
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 30.24
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.43%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.396
Total Debt 156,189
Total Equity 17,580.72
Total Capital 173,769.72
Debt Weighting 89.88
Equity Weighting 10.12
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 26,31825,09522,95023,79325,31325,114.7424,918.0424,722.8724,529.2424,337.12
EBITDA 12,92712,8568,6397,1738,69010,169.8710,090.2210,011.199,932.789,854.99
EBIT -----10,169.8710,090.2210,011.199,932.789,854.99
Tax Rate 161.16%79.92%-104.63%51.52%30.24%43.64%43.64%43.64%43.64%43.64%
EBIAT -----5,731.675,686.785,642.245,598.055,554.20
Depreciation ----------
Accounts Receivable -16,8073,240-10,2652,413-1,647.89598.70594.01589.36584.74
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable --16,171-19,4877,843-9,76015,329.90-682.34-677-671.70-666.44
Capital Expenditure -485-465-327-512-550-474.43-470.72-467.03-463.37-459.74
UFCF -----18,939.255,132.425,092.225,052.345,012.77
WACC
PV UFCF 18,344.874,815.334,627.684,447.344,274.03
SUM PV UFCF 36,509.25

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 3.24
Free cash flow (t + 1) 5,113.02
Terminal Value 412,340.43
Present Value of Terminal Value 351,573.34

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 388,082.59
Net Debt -43,174
Equity Value 431,256.59
Shares Outstanding 2,108
Equity Value Per Share 204.58