Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated (DBD.DE)

2.96 €

0.00 (0.00%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -12.45 | 2.96 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	4,609.30	4,578.60	4,408.70	3,902.30	3,905.20	3,751.05	3,602.99	3,460.77	3,324.17	3,192.96
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	166.20	-117.90	204.40	203	293.30	137.89	132.44	127.22	122.19	117.37
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	-86	-376.60	-21.70	22.60	144.20	-47.35	-45.48	-43.69	-41.96	-40.31
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	252.20	258.70	226.10	180.40	149.10	185.24	177.92	170.90	164.16	157.68
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	616.60	491.90	290.90	361.70	423.20	381.29	366.24	351.79	337.90	324.56
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	903.50	737.20	619.30	646.90	595.20	611.94	587.78	564.58	542.30	520.89
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	737	610.10	466.50	498.20	544.20	499.62	479.90	460.96	442.77	425.29
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	562.20	509.50	471.50	499.90	706.30	487.01	467.79	449.32	431.59	414.55
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-69.40	-58.50	-42.90	-44.70	-51.30	-46.63	-44.79	-43.02	-41.32	-39.69
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 2.96
Beta	3.014
Diluted Shares Outstanding	76.70
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	-55.42
After-tax Cost of Debt	8.52%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	17.756
Total Debt	2,292.70
Total Equity	227.03
Total Capital	2,519.73
Debt Weighting	90.99
Equity Weighting	9.01
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	4,609.30	4,578.60	4,408.70	3,902.30	3,905.20	3,751.05	3,602.99	3,460.77	3,324.17	3,192.96
EBITDA	166.20	-117.90	204.40	203	293.30	137.89	132.44	127.22	122.19	117.37
EBIT	-86	-376.60	-21.70	22.60	144.20	-47.35	-45.48	-43.69	-41.96	-40.31
Tax Rate	-32.67%	-10.30%	-49.10%	0.15%	-55.42%	-29.47%	-29.47%	-29.47%	-29.47%	-29.47%
EBIAT	-114.10	-415.38	-32.36	22.57	224.12	-61.30	-58.88	-56.56	-54.33	-52.18
Depreciation	252.20	258.70	226.10	180.40	149.10	185.24	177.92	170.90	164.16	157.68
Accounts Receivable	-	166.30	117.90	-27.60	51.70	-16.74	24.15	23.20	22.29	21.41
Inventories	-	126.90	143.60	-31.70	-46	44.58	19.72	18.94	18.20	17.48
Accounts Payable	-	-52.70	-38	28.40	206.40	-219.29	-19.22	-18.46	-17.74	-17.04
Capital Expenditure	-69.40	-58.50	-42.90	-44.70	-51.30	-46.63	-44.79	-43.02	-41.32	-39.69
UFCF	68.70	25.32	374.34	127.37	534.02	-114.15	98.90	95	91.25	87.65
WACC
PV UFCF						-104.39	82.71	72.65	63.82	56.06
SUM PV UFCF										170.86

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	9.35
Free cash flow (t + 1)	89.40
Terminal Value	1,216.34
Present Value of Terminal Value	777.96

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	948.82
Net Debt	1,903.80
Equity Value	-954.98
Shares Outstanding	76.70
Equity Value Per Share	-12.45