Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated (DBD.DE)

2.96 €

0.00 (0.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -12.45 | 2.96 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 4,609.304,578.604,408.703,902.303,905.203,751.053,602.993,460.773,324.173,192.96
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 166.20-117.90204.40203293.30137.89132.44127.22122.19117.37
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -86-376.60-21.7022.60144.20-47.35-45.48-43.69-41.96-40.31
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 252.20258.70226.10180.40149.10185.24177.92170.90164.16157.68
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 616.60491.90290.90361.70423.20381.29366.24351.79337.90324.56
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 903.50737.20619.30646.90595.20611.94587.78564.58542.30520.89
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 737610.10466.50498.20544.20499.62479.90460.96442.77425.29
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 562.20509.50471.50499.90706.30487.01467.79449.32431.59414.55
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -69.40-58.50-42.90-44.70-51.30-46.63-44.79-43.02-41.32-39.69
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 2.96
Beta 3.014
Diluted Shares Outstanding 76.70
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -55.42
After-tax Cost of Debt 8.52%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 17.756
Total Debt 2,292.70
Total Equity 227.03
Total Capital 2,519.73
Debt Weighting 90.99
Equity Weighting 9.01
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 4,609.304,578.604,408.703,902.303,905.203,751.053,602.993,460.773,324.173,192.96
EBITDA 166.20-117.90204.40203293.30137.89132.44127.22122.19117.37
EBIT -86-376.60-21.7022.60144.20-47.35-45.48-43.69-41.96-40.31
Tax Rate -32.67%-10.30%-49.10%0.15%-55.42%-29.47%-29.47%-29.47%-29.47%-29.47%
EBIAT -114.10-415.38-32.3622.57224.12-61.30-58.88-56.56-54.33-52.18
Depreciation 252.20258.70226.10180.40149.10185.24177.92170.90164.16157.68
Accounts Receivable -166.30117.90-27.6051.70-16.7424.1523.2022.2921.41
Inventories -126.90143.60-31.70-4644.5819.7218.9418.2017.48
Accounts Payable --52.70-3828.40206.40-219.29-19.22-18.46-17.74-17.04
Capital Expenditure -69.40-58.50-42.90-44.70-51.30-46.63-44.79-43.02-41.32-39.69
UFCF 68.7025.32374.34127.37534.02-114.1598.909591.2587.65
WACC
PV UFCF -104.3982.7172.6563.8256.06
SUM PV UFCF 170.86

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.35
Free cash flow (t + 1) 89.40
Terminal Value 1,216.34
Present Value of Terminal Value 777.96

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 948.82
Net Debt 1,903.80
Equity Value -954.98
Shares Outstanding 76.70
Equity Value Per Share -12.45