Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Dillards Capital Trust I CAP SECS 7... (DDT)

$25.93

-0.04 (-0.15%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 402.98 | 25.93 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 6,422.686,503.356,343.214,300.906,492.996,778.127,075.777,386.497,710.858,049.46
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 509.79486.36404.4313.801,131.46535.99559.53584.10609.75636.52
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 276.10260.51180.12-202.51876.98270.34282.21294.61307.54321.05
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 233.68225.85224.31216.32254.48265.65277.32289.49302.21315.48
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 187.03123.51277.08360.34716.76387.66404.68422.45441.01460.37
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 39.6549.8546.1636.6939.7848.5050.6352.8555.1757.59
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,463.561,528.421,465.011,087.761,080.181,508.981,575.251,644.421,716.631,792.01
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 835.75921.20892.79591.41892.84932.04972.971,015.701,060.301,106.86
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -130.46-137.06-103.386.735.90-74.85-78.14-81.57-85.15-88.89
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 25.93
Beta 0.205
Diluted Shares Outstanding 25.36
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 20.76
After-tax Cost of Debt 7.53%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 4.932
Total Debt 453.53
Total Equity 657.69
Total Capital 1,111.22
Debt Weighting 40.81
Equity Weighting 59.19
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 6,422.686,503.356,343.214,300.906,492.996,778.127,075.777,386.497,710.858,049.46
EBITDA 509.79486.36404.4313.801,131.46535.99559.53584.10609.75636.52
EBIT 276.10260.51180.12-202.51876.98270.34282.21294.61307.54321.05
Tax Rate -4.06%18.13%17.04%53.29%20.76%21.03%21.03%21.03%21.03%21.03%
EBIAT 287.31213.29149.43-94.59694.96213.49222.86232.65242.87253.53
Depreciation 233.68225.85224.31216.32254.48265.65277.32289.49302.21315.48
Accounts Receivable --10.203.699.47-3.08-8.72-2.13-2.22-2.32-2.42
Inventories --64.8663.41377.247.58-428.80-66.26-69.17-72.21-75.38
Accounts Payable -85.46-28.42-301.38301.4339.2140.9342.7344.6046.56
Capital Expenditure -130.46-137.06-103.386.735.90-74.85-78.14-81.57-85.15-88.89
UFCF 390.53312.47309.05213.781,261.275.98394.58411.91429.99448.88
WACC
PV UFCF 5.64351.24345.94340.72335.59
SUM PV UFCF 1,379.13

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.99
Free cash flow (t + 1) 457.85
Terminal Value 11,475.05
Present Value of Terminal Value 8,578.87

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 9,958
Net Debt -263.23
Equity Value 10,221.23
Shares Outstanding 25.36
Equity Value Per Share 402.98