Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Denbury Inc. (DEN)

$75.08

-2.58 (-3.32%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -196.72 | 75.08 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,115.851,453.731,260.36737.601,242.871,379.601,531.371,699.841,886.842,094.42
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 145.76479.62402.94-1,617.40211.56-342.78-380.50-422.35-468.82-520.39
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 145.76479.62402.94-1,851.81-183.42-781.22-867.16-962.56-1,068.45-1,185.99
EBIT (%)
Depreciation ---234.40394.98438.43486.66540.20599.63665.60
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 0.0638.560.520.523.678.459.3810.4211.5612.84
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 191.53152.76157.73111.10162.63188.55209.29232.32257.87286.24
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 253.81259.67246.7067.79267.50250.80278.39309.02343.01380.75
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -356.45-346.17-292.56-130.23-231.11-317.92-352.89-391.71-434.81-482.64
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 75.08
Beta 0.000
Diluted Shares Outstanding 384.17
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 1.35
After-tax Cost of Debt 7.20%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 3.697
Total Debt 56.77
Total Equity 28,843.48
Total Capital 28,900.25
Debt Weighting 0.20
Equity Weighting 99.80
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,115.851,453.731,260.36737.601,242.871,379.601,531.371,699.841,886.842,094.42
EBITDA 145.76479.62402.94-1,617.40211.56-342.78-380.50-422.35-468.82-520.39
EBIT 145.76479.62402.94-1,851.81-183.42-781.22-867.16-962.56-1,068.45-1,185.99
Tax Rate -250.86%21.28%32.48%22.01%1.35%-34.75%-34.75%-34.75%-34.75%-34.75%
EBIAT 511.43377.56272.08-1,444.18-180.95-1,052.68-1,168.49-1,297.03-1,439.72-1,598.11
Depreciation ---234.40394.98438.43486.66540.20599.63665.60
Accounts Receivable -38.77-4.9746.62-51.53-25.91-20.74-23.02-25.56-28.37
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -5.86-12.97-178.91199.70-16.7027.5930.633437.74
Capital Expenditure -356.45-346.17-292.56-130.23-231.11-317.92-352.89-391.71-434.81-482.64
UFCF 154.9876.01-38.41-1,472.29131.09-974.78-1,027.87-1,140.94-1,266.46-1,405.78
WACC
PV UFCF -940-955.83-1,023.12-1,095.16-1,172.26
SUM PV UFCF -5,186.36

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 3.70
Free cash flow (t + 1) -1,433.90
Terminal Value -84,347.02
Present Value of Terminal Value -70,335.72

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -75,522.09
Net Debt 53.10
Equity Value -75,575.19
Shares Outstanding 384.17
Equity Value Per Share -196.72