Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Vinci SA (DG.PA)

83.17 €

+0.56 (+0.68%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 219.89 | 83.17 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 41,07744,35448,95044,11850,23053,033.1255,992.6659,117.3762,416.4565,899.63
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 6,7137,2228,6875,7648,1658,452.638,924.339,422.369,948.1810,503.34
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 4,5854,9805,6472,5934,9465,266.215,560.095,870.386,197.986,543.86
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 2,1282,2423,0403,1713,2193,186.423,364.243,551.983,750.203,959.49
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 7,0298,2428,59711,93211,36510,917.2311,526.4812,169.7212,848.8613,565.90
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,0561,1731,4341,4281,5911,543.171,629.291,720.211,816.211,917.57
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 8,1988,2408,5148,87612,02710,605.7011,197.5611,822.4512,482.2113,178.78
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1,920-2,081-2,396-2,160-2,063-2,467.50-2,605.20-2,750.59-2,904.09-3,066.15
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 83.17
Beta 0.987
Diluted Shares Outstanding 563.12
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 32.00
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.54%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.463
Total Debt 31,884
Total Equity 46,834.65
Total Capital 78,718.65
Debt Weighting 40.50
Equity Weighting 59.50
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 41,07744,35448,95044,11850,23053,033.1255,992.6659,117.3762,416.4565,899.63
EBITDA 6,7137,2228,6875,7648,1658,452.638,924.339,422.369,948.1810,503.34
EBIT 4,5854,9805,6472,5934,9465,266.215,560.095,870.386,197.986,543.86
Tax Rate 33.16%33.31%35.33%31.87%32.00%33.13%33.13%33.13%33.13%33.13%
EBIAT 3,064.483,321.113,651.901,766.603,363.383,521.273,717.783,925.254,144.314,375.58
Depreciation 2,1282,2423,0403,1713,2193,186.423,364.243,551.983,750.203,959.49
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories --117-2616-16347.83-86.12-90.92-96-101.35
Accounts Payable -422743623,151-1,421.30591.86624.89659.76696.58
Capital Expenditure -1,920-2,081-2,396-2,160-2,063-2,467.50-2,605.20-2,750.59-2,904.09-3,066.15
UFCF 3,272.483,407.114,308.903,145.607,507.382,866.724,982.565,260.615,554.185,864.14
WACC
PV UFCF 2,713.164,463.044,459.694,456.334,452.98
SUM PV UFCF 20,545.20

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.66
Free cash flow (t + 1) 5,981.42
Terminal Value 163,426.76
Present Value of Terminal Value 124,099.53

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 144,644.73
Net Debt 20,819
Equity Value 123,825.73
Shares Outstanding 563.12
Equity Value Per Share 219.89