Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Dundee Precious Metals Inc. (DPM.TO)
$9.5
-0.05 (-0.52%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 377.11 | 419.06 | 609.56 | 641.44 | 569.79 | 641.94 | 723.21 | 814.77 | 917.93 | 1,034.15 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 107.74 | 32.76 | 318.70 | 347 | 162.43 | 219.90 | 247.74 | 279.10 | 314.44 | 354.25 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 48.79 | -49.36 | 218.49 | 250.80 | 61.18 | 111.49 | 125.61 | 141.51 | 159.43 | 179.61 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 58.94 | 82.13 | 100.21 | 96.21 | 101.25 | 108.41 | 122.13 | 137.59 | 155.01 | 174.64 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 17.04 | 23.44 | 149.53 | 334.38 | 433.18 | 209.01 | 235.47 | 265.28 | 298.87 | 336.71 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 22.80 | 32.32 | 76.42 | 118.72 | 116.84 | 83.85 | 94.47 | 106.43 | 119.90 | 135.08 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 34.10 | 38.03 | 43.05 | 49.63 | 45.81 | 52.58 | 59.24 | 66.74 | 75.19 | 84.71 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 13.78 | 15.84 | 13.11 | 20.38 | 22.02 | 21.35 | 24.05 | 27.10 | 30.53 | 34.39 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -99.67 | -68.98 | -37.56 | -64.15 | -49.07 | -86.87 | -97.87 | -110.26 | -124.22 | -139.95 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 9.5 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.161 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 191.16 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 38.85 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 10.24% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 9.226 |
Total Debt | 14.58 |
Total Equity | 1,816 |
Total Capital | 1,830.58 |
Debt Weighting | 0.80 |
Equity Weighting | 99.20 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 377.11 | 419.06 | 609.56 | 641.44 | 569.79 | 641.94 | 723.21 | 814.77 | 917.93 | 1,034.15 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 107.74 | 32.76 | 318.70 | 347 | 162.43 | 219.90 | 247.74 | 279.10 | 314.44 | 354.25 |
EBIT | 48.79 | -49.36 | 218.49 | 250.80 | 61.18 | 111.49 | 125.61 | 141.51 | 159.43 | 179.61 |
Tax Rate | 14.19% | -24.40% | 10.06% | 8.42% | 38.85% | 9.42% | 9.42% | 9.42% | 9.42% | 9.42% |
EBIAT | 41.87 | -61.41 | 196.51 | 229.68 | 37.42 | 100.99 | 113.77 | 128.18 | 144.41 | 162.69 |
Depreciation | 58.94 | 82.13 | 100.21 | 96.21 | 101.25 | 108.41 | 122.13 | 137.59 | 155.01 | 174.64 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -9.52 | -44.10 | -42.30 | 1.88 | 32.99 | -10.62 | -11.96 | -13.47 | -15.18 |
Inventories | - | -3.93 | -5.02 | -6.58 | 3.81 | -6.77 | -6.66 | -7.50 | -8.45 | -9.52 |
Accounts Payable | - | 2.06 | -2.73 | 7.27 | 1.65 | -0.68 | 2.70 | 3.05 | 3.43 | 3.86 |
Capital Expenditure | -99.67 | -68.98 | -37.56 | -64.15 | -49.07 | -86.87 | -97.87 | -110.26 | -124.22 | -139.95 |
UFCF | 1.14 | -59.66 | 207.33 | 220.13 | 96.94 | 148.06 | 123.46 | 139.09 | 156.70 | 176.54 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 135.55 | 103.48 | 106.73 | 110.08 | 113.54 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 569.37 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 9.23 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 180.07 |
Terminal Value | 2,490.65 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 1,601.78 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 2,171.15 |
---|---|
Net Debt | -418.59 |
Equity Value | 2,589.75 |
Shares Outstanding | 191.16 |
Equity Value Per Share | 13.55 |