Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Dundee Precious Metals Inc. (DPM.TO)
$9.94
+0.35 (+3.65%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 377.11 | 419.06 | 609.56 | 641.44 | 569.79 | 641.94 | 723.21 | 814.77 | 917.93 | 1,034.15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 107.74 | 32.76 | 318.70 | 347 | 162.43 | 219.90 | 247.74 | 279.10 | 314.44 | 354.25 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 48.79 | -49.36 | 218.49 | 250.80 | 61.18 | 111.49 | 125.61 | 141.51 | 159.43 | 179.61 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 58.94 | 82.13 | 100.21 | 96.21 | 101.25 | 108.41 | 122.13 | 137.59 | 155.01 | 174.64 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 17.04 | 23.44 | 149.53 | 334.38 | 433.18 | 209.01 | 235.47 | 265.28 | 298.87 | 336.71 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 22.80 | 32.32 | 76.42 | 118.72 | 116.84 | 83.85 | 94.47 | 106.43 | 119.90 | 135.08 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 34.10 | 38.03 | 43.05 | 49.63 | 45.81 | 52.58 | 59.24 | 66.74 | 75.19 | 84.71 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 13.78 | 15.84 | 13.11 | 20.38 | 22.02 | 21.35 | 24.05 | 27.10 | 30.53 | 34.39 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -99.67 | -68.98 | -37.56 | -64.15 | -49.07 | -86.87 | -97.87 | -110.26 | -124.22 | -139.95 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 9.94 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.181 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 191.16 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 38.85 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 10.24% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.074 |
| Total Debt | 14.58 |
| Total Equity | 1,900.11 |
| Total Capital | 1,914.69 |
| Debt Weighting | 0.76 |
| Equity Weighting | 99.24 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 377.11 | 419.06 | 609.56 | 641.44 | 569.79 | 641.94 | 723.21 | 814.77 | 917.93 | 1,034.15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 107.74 | 32.76 | 318.70 | 347 | 162.43 | 219.90 | 247.74 | 279.10 | 314.44 | 354.25 |
| EBIT | 48.79 | -49.36 | 218.49 | 250.80 | 61.18 | 111.49 | 125.61 | 141.51 | 159.43 | 179.61 |
| Tax Rate | 14.19% | -24.40% | 10.06% | 8.42% | 38.85% | 9.42% | 9.42% | 9.42% | 9.42% | 9.42% |
| EBIAT | 41.87 | -61.41 | 196.51 | 229.68 | 37.42 | 100.99 | 113.77 | 128.18 | 144.41 | 162.69 |
| Depreciation | 58.94 | 82.13 | 100.21 | 96.21 | 101.25 | 108.41 | 122.13 | 137.59 | 155.01 | 174.64 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -9.52 | -44.10 | -42.30 | 1.88 | 32.99 | -10.62 | -11.96 | -13.47 | -15.18 |
| Inventories | - | -3.93 | -5.02 | -6.58 | 3.81 | -6.77 | -6.66 | -7.50 | -8.45 | -9.52 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 2.06 | -2.73 | 7.27 | 1.65 | -0.68 | 2.70 | 3.05 | 3.43 | 3.86 |
| Capital Expenditure | -99.67 | -68.98 | -37.56 | -64.15 | -49.07 | -86.87 | -97.87 | -110.26 | -124.22 | -139.95 |
| UFCF | 1.14 | -59.66 | 207.33 | 220.13 | 96.94 | 148.06 | 123.46 | 139.09 | 156.70 | 176.54 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 135.74 | 103.76 | 107.17 | 110.69 | 114.32 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 571.68 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 9.08 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 180.07 |
| Terminal Value | 2,543.42 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 1,646.99 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 2,218.67 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -418.59 |
| Equity Value | 2,637.26 |
| Shares Outstanding | 191.16 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 13.80 |