Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

DiamondRock Hospitality Company (DRH)

$7.51

+0.06 (+0.81%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -13.89 | 7.51 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 870863.70938.09299.49567.13608.51652.90700.53751.64806.47
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 239.75236.59370.44-251.88-51.081.611.731.861.992.14
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 140.57131.85252.10-366.83-154.27-111.23-119.34-128.05-137.39-147.41
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 99.18104.74118.34114.95103.19112.84121.07129.91139.38149.55
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 183.5743.86122.52111.8038.62101.47108.88116.82125.34134.48
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 86.6286.9191.2169.50120.6790.3396.92103.99111.58119.72
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 132.06124.07154.39141.9551.24124.66133.76143.52153.99165.22
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -100.32-115.17-199.26-89.64-49.91-103.25-110.78-118.86-127.53-136.84
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 7.51
Beta 1.581
Diluted Shares Outstanding 212.06
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -1.27
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.15%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.266
Total Debt 1,175.83
Total Equity 1,592.55
Total Capital 2,768.38
Debt Weighting 42.47
Equity Weighting 57.53
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 870863.70938.09299.49567.13608.51652.90700.53751.64806.47
EBITDA 239.75236.59370.44-251.88-51.081.611.731.861.992.14
EBIT 140.57131.85252.10-366.83-154.27-111.23-119.34-128.05-137.39-147.41
Tax Rate 10.00%3.42%11.03%6.65%-1.27%5.97%5.97%5.97%5.97%5.97%
EBIAT 126.51127.34224.29-342.43-156.24-104.59-112.22-120.41-129.19-138.61
Depreciation 99.18104.74118.34114.95103.19112.84121.07129.91139.38149.55
Accounts Receivable --0.29-4.2921.71-51.1830.34-6.59-7.07-7.59-8.14
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable --7.9930.32-12.44-90.7173.439.099.7610.4711.23
Capital Expenditure -100.31-115.17-199.26-89.64-49.91-103.25-110.78-118.86-127.53-136.84
UFCF 125.38108.63169.39-307.84-244.858.77-99.42-106.67-114.46-122.81
WACC
PV UFCF 8.13-85.52-85.11-84.69-84.28
SUM PV UFCF -331.47

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.82
Free cash flow (t + 1) -125.26
Terminal Value -2,152.29
Present Value of Terminal Value -1,477.08

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -1,808.55
Net Debt 1,137.21
Equity Value -2,945.76
Shares Outstanding 212.06
Equity Value Per Share -13.89