Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Devon Energy Corporation (DVN)

$60.13

-0.84 (-1.38%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -82.97 | 60.13 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 13,94910,7346,2204,82812,20614,199.7316,519.1119,217.3422,356.2926,007.97
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,2303,518-125-1,6685,4241,404.961,634.441,901.412,211.992,573.29
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,2303,518-125-2,9682,137.38-2,418.50-2,813.54-3,273.10-3,807.73-4,429.68
EBIT (%)
Depreciation ---1,3003,286.623,823.464,447.985,174.516,019.717,002.97
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 2,6732,4141,4642,2372,1113,658.354,255.904,951.065,759.776,700.57
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,6708858327751,6261,788.222,080.312,420.112,815.413,275.27
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 819662428242500795.99926.011,077.271,253.231,457.93
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -2,805-2,506-1,941-1,161-2,007-3,270.23-3,804.39-4,425.79-5,148.70-5,989.69
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 60.13
Beta 2.482
Diluted Shares Outstanding 679
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 2.93
After-tax Cost of Debt 5.59%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 15.518
Total Debt 6,734
Total Equity 40,828.27
Total Capital 47,562.27
Debt Weighting 14.16
Equity Weighting 85.84
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 13,94910,7346,2204,82812,20614,199.7316,519.1119,217.3422,356.2926,007.97
EBITDA 1,2303,518-125-1,6685,4241,404.961,634.441,901.412,211.992,573.29
EBIT 1,2303,518-125-2,9682,137.38-2,418.50-2,813.54-3,273.10-3,807.73-4,429.68
Tax Rate -0.22%-233.04%-225.69%13.27%2.93%-88.55%-88.55%-88.55%-88.55%-88.55%
EBIAT 1,232.7511,716.47-407.11-2,574.192,074.69-4,560.10-5,304.94-6,171.45-7,179.49-8,352.19
Depreciation ---1,3003,286.623,823.464,447.985,174.516,019.717,002.97
Accounts Receivable -7855357-851-162.22-292.09-339.80-395.30-459.87
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable --157-234-186258295.99130.02151.25175.96204.70
Capital Expenditure -2,805-2,506-1,941-1,161-2,007-3,270.23-3,804.39-4,425.79-5,148.70-5,989.69
UFCF -1,572.259,838.47-2,529.11-2,564.192,761.31-3,873.09-4,823.42-5,611.28-6,527.82-7,594.07
WACC
PV UFCF -3,394.18-3,704.31-3,776.51-3,850.11-3,925.15
SUM PV UFCF -18,650.26

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 14.11
Free cash flow (t + 1) -7,745.96
Terminal Value -63,963.30
Present Value of Terminal Value -33,060.72

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -51,710.98
Net Debt 4,623
Equity Value -56,333.98
Shares Outstanding 679
Equity Value Per Share -82.97