Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Destination XL Group, Inc. (DXLG)
$5.03
-0.07 (-1.37%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Revenue | 473.76 | 474.04 | 318.95 | 505.02 | 545.84 | 591.91 | 641.88 | 696.06 | 754.82 | 818.53 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 18.53 | 20.17 | -39.04 | 79.21 | 73.97 | 29.79 | 32.30 | 35.03 | 37.99 | 41.19 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -10.12 | -4.39 | -60.51 | 61.98 | 58.59 | 1.15 | 1.24 | 1.35 | 1.46 | 1.59 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 28.65 | 24.56 | 21.48 | 17.23 | 15.38 | 28.64 | 31.06 | 33.68 | 36.52 | 39.60 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Total Cash | 4.87 | 4.34 | 19 | 15.51 | 52.07 | 24.28 | 26.33 | 28.55 | 30.96 | 33.58 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 4.42 | 6.22 | 6.42 | 2.11 | 1.72 | 5.91 | 6.41 | 6.95 | 7.53 | 8.17 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 106.84 | 102.42 | 85.03 | 81.76 | 93 | 123.17 | 133.57 | 144.84 | 157.07 | 170.33 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 34.42 | 31.76 | 27.09 | 25.16 | 27.55 | 38.46 | 41.71 | 45.23 | 49.05 | 53.19 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -12.96 | -13.40 | -4.24 | -5.27 | -9.64 | -11.49 | -12.46 | -13.51 | -14.65 | -15.88 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 5.03 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.481 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 66.89 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -52.78 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 0.17% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 10.536 |
| Total Debt | 144.24 |
| Total Equity | 336.46 |
| Total Capital | 480.70 |
| Debt Weighting | 30.01 |
| Equity Weighting | 69.99 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Revenue | 473.76 | 474.04 | 318.95 | 505.02 | 545.84 | 591.91 | 641.88 | 696.06 | 754.82 | 818.53 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 18.53 | 20.17 | -39.04 | 79.21 | 73.97 | 29.79 | 32.30 | 35.03 | 37.99 | 41.19 |
| EBIT | -10.12 | -4.39 | -60.51 | 61.98 | 58.59 | 1.15 | 1.24 | 1.35 | 1.46 | 1.59 |
| Tax Rate | 0.37% | -1.37% | -0.16% | 1.59% | -52.78% | -10.47% | -10.47% | -10.47% | -10.47% | -10.47% |
| EBIAT | -10.08 | -4.45 | -60.61 | 60.99 | 89.51 | 1.27 | 1.38 | 1.49 | 1.62 | 1.75 |
| Depreciation | 28.65 | 24.56 | 21.48 | 17.23 | 15.38 | 28.64 | 31.06 | 33.68 | 36.52 | 39.60 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -1.80 | -0.20 | 4.31 | 0.39 | -4.19 | -0.50 | -0.54 | -0.59 | -0.64 |
| Inventories | - | 4.42 | 17.39 | 3.26 | -11.24 | -30.17 | -10.40 | -11.27 | -12.23 | -13.26 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -2.65 | -4.67 | -1.93 | 2.38 | 10.91 | 3.25 | 3.52 | 3.82 | 4.14 |
| Capital Expenditure | -12.96 | -13.40 | -4.24 | -5.27 | -9.64 | -11.49 | -12.46 | -13.51 | -14.65 | -15.88 |
| UFCF | 5.61 | 6.67 | -30.86 | 78.59 | 86.78 | -5.02 | 12.33 | 13.37 | 14.50 | 15.72 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -4.67 | 10.68 | 10.78 | 10.88 | 10.99 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 38.66 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.43 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 16.03 |
| Terminal Value | 295.28 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 206.35 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 245.01 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 92.17 |
| Equity Value | 152.84 |
| Shares Outstanding | 66.89 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 2.28 |