Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Brinker International, Inc. (EAT)

$25.03

-0.50 (-1.96%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 257.91 | 25.03 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 3,135.423,217.903,078.503,337.803,804.104,000.884,207.854,425.524,654.454,895.22
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 380.60381226.80351.60330.50404.63425.56447.58470.73495.08
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 229.21233.4064.50201.40166.10216.52227.72239.50251.89264.92
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 151.39147.60162.30150.20164.40188.11197.84208.08218.84230.16
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 10.8713.4043.9023.9013.5026.0927.4428.8630.3531.92
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 53.6669.6087.7088.2070.9089.8594.5099.39104.53109.94
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 24.2423.2078.9081.5035.6059.4962.5765.8069.2172.79
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 104.6697.50104.90127.70134.30137.08144.18151.63159.48167.73
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -101.28-167.60-104.50-94-150.30-148.84-156.53-164.63-173.15-182.11
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 25.03
Beta 2.435
Diluted Shares Outstanding 45.60
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -2.08
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.42%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 15.373
Total Debt 3,242
Total Equity 1,141.37
Total Capital 4,383.37
Debt Weighting 73.96
Equity Weighting 26.04
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 3,135.423,217.903,078.503,337.803,804.104,000.884,207.854,425.524,654.454,895.22
EBITDA 380.60381226.80351.60330.50404.63425.56447.58470.73495.08
EBIT 229.21233.4064.50201.40166.10216.52227.72239.50251.89264.92
Tax Rate 26.05%9.84%-397.96%9.37%-2.08%-70.96%-70.96%-70.96%-70.96%-70.96%
EBIAT 169.50210.44321.18182.54169.56370.16389.31409.44430.62452.90
Depreciation 151.39147.60162.30150.20164.40188.11197.84208.08218.84230.16
Accounts Receivable --15.94-18.10-0.5017.30-18.95-4.65-4.89-5.14-5.41
Inventories -1.04-55.70-2.6045.90-23.89-3.08-3.24-3.40-3.58
Accounts Payable --7.167.4022.806.602.787.097.467.848.25
Capital Expenditure -101.28-167.60-104.50-94-150.30-148.84-156.53-164.63-173.15-182.11
UFCF 219.61168.38312.58258.44253.46369.37429.98452.22475.62500.22
WACC
PV UFCF 351.62389.63390.09390.55391
SUM PV UFCF 1,912.89

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.05
Free cash flow (t + 1) 510.22
Terminal Value 16,728.68
Present Value of Terminal Value 13,076.19

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 14,989.08
Net Debt 3,228.50
Equity Value 11,760.58
Shares Outstanding 45.60
Equity Value Per Share 257.91