Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Ecopetrol S.A. (EC)
$9.76
+0.33 (+3.50%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 68,603,872 | 71,488,511.83 | 50,223,392.55 | 91,743,999.30 | 159,473,998.53 | 211,683,956.48 | 280,986,855.81 | 372,978,729.49 | 495,087,687.45 | 657,173,717.67 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 22,793,222.79 | 21,392,453.90 | 16,207,204.79 | 37,281,999.82 | 67,339,999.34 | 75,478,988.33 | 100,189,943.37 | 132,990,981.65 | 176,530,703.63 | 234,324,831.20 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 22,708,066.86 | 21,114,422.93 | 6,882,666.95 | 31,447,335.60 | 57,197,894.78 | 62,016,475.07 | 82,319,957.67 | 109,270,567.61 | 145,044,498.11 | 192,530,403.13 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 85,155.93 | 278,030.98 | 9,324,537.84 | 5,834,664.22 | 10,142,104.56 | 13,462,513.27 | 17,869,985.70 | 23,720,414.04 | 31,486,205.53 | 41,794,428.07 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 11,632,842.31 | 8,699,775.86 | 7,276,958.75 | 16,177,000.13 | 16,562,999.79 | 30,327,526.49 | 40,256,410.81 | 53,435,897.97 | 70,930,198.05 | 94,151,931.32 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 9,225,550.28 | 7,219,140.83 | 8,795,387.19 | 24,723,000.45 | 46,008,999.70 | 41,006,018.93 | 54,430,919.19 | 72,250,977.82 | 95,905,119.23 | 127,303,355.24 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 5,100,407 | 5,658,099.10 | 5,053,959.90 | 8,397,999.82 | 11,879,999.57 | 17,787,995.50 | 23,611,581.19 | 31,341,742.05 | 41,602,668.91 | 55,222,905.52 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 8,945,789.86 | 10,689,246.10 | 8,449,041.15 | 13,567,999.87 | 19,938,000.64 | 30,527,544.55 | 40,521,912.48 | 53,788,321.84 | 71,398,001.46 | 94,772,888.20 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -8,460,425.70 | -13,979,140.98 | -11,116,861.05 | -13,295,000.01 | -21,879,000.14 | -34,814,555.33 | -46,212,441.42 | -61,341,864.69 | -81,424,487.60 | -108,081,930.90 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 9.76 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.788 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 2,055.83 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 38.49 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.43% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 7.409 |
| Total Debt | 115,135,000 |
| Total Equity | 20,064.95 |
| Total Capital | 115,155,064.95 |
| Debt Weighting | 99.98 |
| Equity Weighting | 0.02 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 68,603,872 | 71,488,511.83 | 50,223,392.55 | 91,743,999.30 | 159,473,998.53 | 211,683,956.48 | 280,986,855.81 | 372,978,729.49 | 495,087,687.45 | 657,173,717.67 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 22,793,222.79 | 21,392,453.90 | 16,207,204.79 | 37,281,999.82 | 67,339,999.34 | 75,478,988.33 | 100,189,943.37 | 132,990,981.65 | 176,530,703.63 | 234,324,831.20 |
| EBIT | 22,708,066.86 | 21,114,422.93 | 6,882,666.95 | 31,447,335.60 | 57,197,894.78 | 62,016,475.07 | 82,319,957.67 | 109,270,567.61 | 145,044,498.11 | 192,530,403.13 |
| Tax Rate | 44.79% | 30.32% | 66.78% | 36.57% | 38.49% | 43.39% | 43.39% | 43.39% | 43.39% | 43.39% |
| EBIAT | 12,537,636.63 | 14,713,203.06 | 2,286,305.32 | 19,945,796.97 | 35,179,748.74 | 35,106,919.33 | 46,600,522.04 | 61,856,998.45 | 82,108,270.24 | 108,989,576.14 |
| Depreciation | 85,155.93 | 278,030.98 | 9,324,537.84 | 5,834,664.22 | 10,142,104.56 | 13,462,513.27 | 17,869,985.70 | 23,720,414.04 | 31,486,205.53 | 41,794,428.07 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 2,006,409.45 | -1,576,246.36 | -15,927,613.26 | -21,285,999.24 | 5,002,980.76 | -13,424,900.26 | -17,820,058.62 | -23,654,141.42 | -31,398,236.01 |
| Inventories | - | -557,692.10 | 604,139.20 | -3,344,039.92 | -3,481,999.75 | -5,907,995.92 | -5,823,585.70 | -7,730,160.86 | -10,260,926.86 | -13,620,236.62 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 1,743,456.23 | -2,240,204.95 | 5,118,958.72 | 6,370,000.77 | 10,589,543.90 | 9,994,367.93 | 13,266,409.36 | 17,609,679.62 | 23,374,886.74 |
| Capital Expenditure | -8,460,426 | -13,979,141 | -11,116,861 | -13,295,000 | -21,879,000 | -34,814,555.33 | -46,212,441.42 | -61,341,864.69 | -81,424,487.60 | -108,081,930.90 |
| UFCF | 4,162,366.86 | 4,204,266.64 | -2,718,330.01 | -1,667,233.27 | 5,044,854.93 | 23,439,406.01 | 9,003,948.29 | 11,951,737.69 | 15,864,599.52 | 21,058,487.43 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 22,883,340.83 | 8,581,805.09 | 11,121,145.80 | 14,411,872.87 | 18,676,320.16 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 75,674,484.76 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 2.43 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 21,479,657.18 |
| Terminal Value | 4,995,269,111.82 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 4,430,196,875.92 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 4,505,871,360.68 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 99,734,000 |
| Equity Value | 4,406,137,360.68 |
| Shares Outstanding | 2,055.83 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 2,143,235.20 |