Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
EcoSynthetix Inc. (ECO.TO)
$3.57
-0.06 (-1.65%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 22.80 | 18.45 | 13.66 | 18.16 | 19.03 | 18.69 | 18.35 | 18.01 | 17.68 | 17.36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -2.21 | -1.18 | -1.57 | -1.86 | -1.77 | -1.76 | -1.73 | -1.70 | -1.67 | -1.64 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -3.46 | -2.56 | -3.01 | -3.24 | -2.90 | -3.15 | -3.09 | -3.03 | -2.98 | -2.92 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 1.25 | 1.38 | 1.44 | 1.38 | 1.14 | 1.39 | 1.36 | 1.34 | 1.31 | 1.29 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 44.84 | 43.70 | 41.98 | 42.23 | 25.86 | 41.46 | 40.70 | 39.96 | 39.23 | 38.52 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 2.49 | 1.94 | 1.92 | 1.92 | 2.93 | 2.30 | 2.25 | 2.21 | 2.17 | 2.13 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 2.72 | 2.27 | 2.13 | 2.07 | 5.32 | 2.96 | 2.91 | 2.85 | 2.80 | 2.75 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 1.31 | 0.54 | 0.56 | 0.96 | 1.26 | 0.92 | 0.90 | 0.89 | 0.87 | 0.86 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -0.22 | -0.46 | -0.25 | -0.38 | -0.27 | -0.33 | -0.32 | -0.32 | -0.31 | -0.31 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 3.57 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.798 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 58.90 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 44.46 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 35.79% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 7.923 |
| Total Debt | 0.82 |
| Total Equity | 210.27 |
| Total Capital | 211.09 |
| Debt Weighting | 0.39 |
| Equity Weighting | 99.61 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 22.80 | 18.45 | 13.66 | 18.16 | 19.03 | 18.69 | 18.35 | 18.01 | 17.68 | 17.36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -2.21 | -1.18 | -1.57 | -1.86 | -1.77 | -1.76 | -1.73 | -1.70 | -1.67 | -1.64 |
| EBIT | -3.46 | -2.56 | -3.01 | -3.24 | -2.90 | -3.15 | -3.09 | -3.03 | -2.98 | -2.92 |
| Tax Rate | 0.00% | 76.24% | 25.21% | 1.96% | 44.46% | 29.58% | 29.58% | 29.58% | 29.58% | 29.58% |
| EBIAT | -3.46 | -0.61 | -2.25 | -3.18 | -1.61 | -2.22 | -2.18 | -2.14 | -2.10 | -2.06 |
| Depreciation | 1.25 | 1.38 | 1.44 | 1.38 | 1.14 | 1.39 | 1.36 | 1.34 | 1.31 | 1.29 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 0.55 | 0.02 | -0 | -1.01 | 0.63 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Inventories | - | 0.45 | 0.13 | 0.06 | -3.24 | 2.36 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -0.77 | 0.02 | 0.40 | 0.30 | -0.34 | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.02 |
| Capital Expenditure | -0.22 | -0.46 | -0.25 | -0.38 | -0.27 | -0.33 | -0.32 | -0.32 | -0.31 | -0.31 |
| UFCF | -2.43 | 0.55 | -0.88 | -1.72 | -4.70 | 1.49 | -1.06 | -1.04 | -1.02 | -1 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 1.38 | -0.91 | -0.82 | -0.75 | -0.68 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -1.78 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.03 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -1.02 |
| Terminal Value | -16.94 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -11.51 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -13.29 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -3.99 |
| Equity Value | -9.30 |
| Shares Outstanding | 58.90 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -0.16 |