Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
US Ecology, Inc. (ECOL)
$47.99
0.00 (0.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 504.04 | 565.93 | 685.51 | 933.85 | 988 | 1,174.32 | 1,395.78 | 1,659.01 | 1,971.87 | 2,343.74 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 99.32 | 115.84 | 125.95 | -257.10 | 144.48 | 107.19 | 127.40 | 151.43 | 179.99 | 213.93 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 61.13 | 76.99 | 69.04 | -361.01 | 39.07 | 2.58 | 3.07 | 3.65 | 4.33 | 5.15 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 38.19 | 38.85 | 56.91 | 103.91 | 105.41 | 104.61 | 124.34 | 147.78 | 175.65 | 208.78 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 27.04 | 31.97 | 41.28 | 79.45 | 67.49 | 76.03 | 90.37 | 107.42 | 127.67 | 151.75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 110.78 | 151.76 | 266.55 | 260.26 | 264.59 | 334.28 | 397.32 | 472.25 | 561.31 | 667.16 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 14.87 | 17.75 | 46.91 | 35.88 | 64.79 | 54.79 | 65.13 | 77.41 | 92.01 | 109.36 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -36.24 | -40.76 | -58.10 | -57.40 | -68.67 | -84.47 | -100.39 | -119.33 | -141.83 | -168.58 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 47.99 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.000 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 31.37 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 47.17 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.95% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 3.714 |
| Total Debt | 782.76 |
| Total Equity | 1,505.59 |
| Total Capital | 2,288.35 |
| Debt Weighting | 34.21 |
| Equity Weighting | 65.79 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 504.04 | 565.93 | 685.51 | 933.85 | 988 | 1,174.32 | 1,395.78 | 1,659.01 | 1,971.87 | 2,343.74 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 99.32 | 115.84 | 125.95 | -257.10 | 144.48 | 107.19 | 127.40 | 151.43 | 179.99 | 213.93 |
| EBIT | 61.13 | 76.99 | 69.04 | -361.01 | 39.07 | 2.58 | 3.07 | 3.65 | 4.33 | 5.15 |
| Tax Rate | -14.88% | 23.53% | 33.45% | 1.08% | 47.17% | 18.07% | 18.07% | 18.07% | 18.07% | 18.07% |
| EBIAT | 70.22 | 58.87 | 45.94 | -357.12 | 20.64 | 2.11 | 2.51 | 2.99 | 3.55 | 4.22 |
| Depreciation | 38.19 | 38.85 | 56.91 | 103.91 | 105.41 | 104.61 | 124.34 | 147.78 | 175.65 | 208.78 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -40.98 | -114.79 | 6.30 | -4.34 | -69.68 | -63.04 | -74.93 | -89.06 | -105.85 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | 2.89 | 29.15 | -11.03 | 28.91 | -10 | 10.33 | 12.28 | 14.60 | 17.35 |
| Capital Expenditure | -36.24 | -40.76 | -58.10 | -57.40 | -68.67 | -84.47 | -100.39 | -119.33 | -141.83 | -168.58 |
| UFCF | 72.17 | 18.87 | -40.88 | -315.34 | 81.96 | -57.43 | -26.25 | -31.20 | -37.09 | -44.08 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -55.69 | -24.69 | -28.46 | -32.81 | -37.82 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -179.48 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 3.11 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -44.96 |
| Terminal Value | -4,050.62 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -3,475.50 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -3,654.98 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 715.27 |
| Equity Value | -4,370.25 |
| Shares Outstanding | 31.37 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -139.30 |