Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL)

$232.46

+3.44 (+1.50%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 91.90 | 232.46 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 13,68314,86314,29416,21517,73718,961.7920,271.1521,670.9323,167.3724,767.14
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 2,6302,9881,8064,1503,9123,777.514,038.354,317.214,615.334,934.03
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 2,0992,4311,1953,4993,1853,018.413,226.843,449.673,687.883,942.53
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 531557611651727759.09811.51867.55927.45991.50
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 2,7152,9875,0224,9583,9574,852.655,187.745,545.965,928.936,338.34
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,4871,8311,1941,7021,6291,942.462,076.602,219.992,373.292,537.17
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,6182,0062,0622,5052,9202,717.552,905.203,105.823,320.283,549.55
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1,1821,4901,1771,6921,8221,805.341,9302,063.282,205.752,358.06
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -629-744-623-637-1,040-900.80-963-1,029.50-1,100.59-1,176.59
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 232.46
Beta 0.988
Diluted Shares Outstanding 364.90
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 21.28
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.87%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.541
Total Debt 7,012
Total Equity 84,824.65
Total Capital 91,836.65
Debt Weighting 7.64
Equity Weighting 92.36
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 13,68314,86314,29416,21517,73718,961.7920,271.1521,670.9323,167.3724,767.14
EBITDA 2,6302,9881,8064,1503,9123,777.514,038.354,317.214,615.334,934.03
EBIT 2,0992,4311,1953,4993,1853,018.413,226.843,449.673,687.883,942.53
Tax Rate 44.04%22.63%34.61%13.84%21.28%27.28%27.28%27.28%27.28%27.28%
EBIAT 1,174.591,880.94781.433,014.752,507.302,195.032,346.612,508.652,681.882,867.07
Depreciation 531557611651727759.09811.51867.55927.45991.50
Accounts Receivable --344637-50873-313.46-134.13-143.39-153.30-163.88
Inventories --388-56-443-415202.45-187.65-200.61-214.47-229.27
Accounts Payable -308-313515130-16.66124.66133.27142.47152.31
Capital Expenditure -629-744-623-637-1,040-900.80-963-1,029.50-1,100.59-1,176.59
UFCF 1,076.591,269.941,037.432,592.751,982.301,925.651,997.992,135.962,283.452,441.13
WACC
PV UFCF 1,782.521,7121,694.181,676.541,659.09
SUM PV UFCF 8,524.33

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.03
Free cash flow (t + 1) 2,489.95
Terminal Value 41,292.74
Present Value of Terminal Value 28,064.15

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 36,588.47
Net Debt 3,055
Equity Value 33,533.47
Shares Outstanding 364.90
Equity Value Per Share 91.90