Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Elanco Animal Health Incorporated (ELAN)

$12.41

-0.25 (-1.97%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -31.99 | 12.41 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,8893,066.803,0713,273.304,7655,461.296,259.337,173.988,222.299,423.78
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 85.80439.70471.60-5.30385443.26508.03582.26667.35764.87
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -232.60143.70157.10-522.20-331-231.01-264.77-303.46-347.80-398.62
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 318.40296314.50516.90716674.27772.80885.721,015.151,163.49
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 323.40474.80334494.70638721.49826.91947.751,086.241,244.97
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 601.90709.40889.901,076.701,0281,391.651,595.011,828.082,095.222,401.38
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,062.301,004.101,050.701,578.101,3731,974.262,262.762,593.402,972.373,406.71
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 203.80205.20222.60501418492.30564.24646.69741.19849.49
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -98.60-134.50-197.40-310.90-197-304.29-348.76-399.72-458.13-525.07
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 12.41
Beta 0.868
Diluted Shares Outstanding 487.30
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 16.75
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.11%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.902
Total Debt 6,319
Total Equity 6,047.39
Total Capital 12,366.39
Debt Weighting 51.10
Equity Weighting 48.90
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,8893,066.803,0713,273.304,7655,461.296,259.337,173.988,222.299,423.78
EBITDA 85.80439.70471.60-5.30385443.26508.03582.26667.35764.87
EBIT -232.60143.70157.10-522.20-331-231.01-264.77-303.46-347.80-398.62
Tax Rate -33.58%24.19%13.17%16.65%16.75%7.44%7.44%7.44%7.44%7.44%
EBIAT -310.70108.94136.41-435.24-275.54-213.83-245.07-280.88-321.93-368.97
Depreciation 318.40296314.50516.90716674.27772.80885.721,015.151,163.49
Accounts Receivable --107.50-180.50-186.8048.70-363.65-203.36-233.07-267.13-306.17
Inventories -58.20-46.60-527.40205.10-601.26-288.49-330.65-378.96-434.34
Accounts Payable -1.4017.40278.40-8374.3071.9482.4594.50108.31
Capital Expenditure -98.60-134.50-197.40-310.90-197-304.29-348.76-399.72-458.13-525.07
UFCF -90.90222.5443.81-665.04414.26-734.47-240.94-276.15-316.51-362.76
WACC
PV UFCF -696.51-216.68-235.51-255.97-278.22
SUM PV UFCF -1,682.89

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.45
Free cash flow (t + 1) -370.01
Terminal Value -10,724.97
Present Value of Terminal Value -8,225.51

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -9,908.41
Net Debt 5,681
Equity Value -15,589.41
Shares Outstanding 487.30
Equity Value Per Share -31.99