Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
ERAMET S.A. (ERA.PA)
84.55 €
+0.30 (+0.36%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 3,749 | 3,683 | 3,553 | 3,668 | 5,014 | 5,448.24 | 5,920.09 | 6,432.80 | 6,989.92 | 7,595.28 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 840 | 485 | 338 | 652 | 1,602 | 1,033.13 | 1,122.61 | 1,219.83 | 1,325.48 | 1,440.27 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 394 | 172 | -416 | 510 | 1,113 | 431.21 | 468.55 | 509.13 | 553.22 | 601.14 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 446 | 313 | 754 | 142 | 489 | 601.93 | 654.06 | 710.70 | 772.25 | 839.14 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 1,365 | 921 | 1,856 | 1,176 | 1,660 | 1,948.54 | 2,117.29 | 2,300.66 | 2,499.91 | 2,716.41 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 395 | 362 | 348 | 375 | 506.20 | 550.04 | 597.68 | 649.44 | 705.69 | 766.80 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 946 | 1,098 | 906 | 578 | 724 | 1,206.71 | 1,311.22 | 1,424.78 | 1,548.17 | 1,682.25 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 391 | 458 | 541 | 403 | 424 | 626.93 | 681.22 | 740.22 | 804.33 | 873.99 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -297 | -456 | -360 | -312 | -530 | -539.51 | -586.23 | -637 | -692.17 | -752.12 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 84.55 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.627 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 79.87 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 38.02 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.37% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 11.492 |
| Total Debt | 2,004 |
| Total Equity | 6,752.78 |
| Total Capital | 8,756.78 |
| Debt Weighting | 22.89 |
| Equity Weighting | 77.11 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 3,749 | 3,683 | 3,553 | 3,668 | 5,014 | 5,448.24 | 5,920.09 | 6,432.80 | 6,989.92 | 7,595.28 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 840 | 485 | 338 | 652 | 1,602 | 1,033.13 | 1,122.61 | 1,219.83 | 1,325.48 | 1,440.27 |
| EBIT | 394 | 172 | -416 | 510 | 1,113 | 431.21 | 468.55 | 509.13 | 553.22 | 601.14 |
| Tax Rate | 85.32% | 324.39% | -21.62% | 66.44% | 38.02% | 98.51% | 98.51% | 98.51% | 98.51% | 98.51% |
| EBIAT | 57.84 | -385.95 | -505.95 | 171.15 | 689.80 | 6.42 | 6.98 | 7.58 | 8.24 | 8.95 |
| Depreciation | 446 | 313 | 754 | 142 | 489 | 601.93 | 654.06 | 710.70 | 772.25 | 839.14 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 33 | 14 | -27 | -131.20 | -43.84 | -47.64 | -51.76 | -56.25 | -61.12 |
| Inventories | - | -152 | 192 | 328 | -146 | -482.71 | -104.51 | -113.56 | -123.39 | -134.08 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 67 | 83 | -138 | 21 | 202.93 | 54.30 | 59 | 64.11 | 69.66 |
| Capital Expenditure | -297 | -456 | -360 | -312 | -530 | -539.51 | -586.23 | -637 | -692.17 | -752.12 |
| UFCF | 206.84 | -580.95 | 177.05 | 164.15 | 392.60 | -254.78 | -23.04 | -25.04 | -27.21 | -29.56 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -232.40 | -19.17 | -19 | -18.84 | -18.67 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -308.08 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 9.63 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -30.15 |
| Terminal Value | -395.22 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -249.57 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -557.65 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 881 |
| Equity Value | -1,438.65 |
| Shares Outstanding | 79.87 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -18.01 |