Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Equitrans Midstream Corporation (ETRN)

$9.83

+0.30 (+3.15%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -42.56 | 9.83 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 895.561,495.101,630.241,510.821,317.041,500.871,710.371,949.112,221.172,531.21
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 322.26634.36383.781,158.65-1,011.70305.66348.33396.95452.36515.50
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 220.05416.99103.16835.84-1,346.9235.5540.5246.1752.6259.96
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 102.21217.37280.62322.81335.22270.11307.81350.78399.74455.54
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 121294.1788.32208.02134.66187.90214.13244.02278.08316.90
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 219.27255.50255.34290.45252.30287.02327.08372.74424.76484.05
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 105.36210.01128.1172.1059.63128.98146.99167.50190.89217.53
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -380.15-865.88-967.37-462.03-290.52-637.40-726.37-827.76-943.30-1,074.97
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 9.83
Beta 2.105
Diluted Shares Outstanding 343.98
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 19.32
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.41%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.814
Total Debt 6,939.94
Total Equity 3,381.27
Total Capital 10,321.22
Debt Weighting 67.24
Equity Weighting 32.76
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 895.561,495.101,630.241,510.821,317.041,500.871,710.371,949.112,221.172,531.21
EBITDA 322.26634.36383.781,158.65-1,011.70305.66348.33396.95452.36515.50
EBIT 220.05416.99103.16835.84-1,346.9235.5540.5246.1752.6259.96
Tax Rate 105.08%63.26%-1,329.27%43.08%19.32%-219.71%-219.71%-219.71%-219.71%-219.71%
EBIAT -11.17153.211,474.38475.77-1,086.70113.67129.53147.61168.22191.70
Depreciation 102.21217.37280.62322.81335.22270.11307.81350.78399.74455.54
Accounts Receivable --36.220.15-35.1038.14-34.72-40.06-45.66-52.03-59.29
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -104.64-81.89-56.02-12.4769.361820.5223.3826.64
Capital Expenditure -380.15-865.88-967.37-462.03-290.52-637.40-726.37-827.76-943.30-1,074.97
UFCF -289.11-426.89705.89245.42-1,016.33-218.98-311.08-354.50-403.99-460.38
WACC
PV UFCF -204.35-270.90-288.09-306.36-325.80
SUM PV UFCF -1,395.50

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.16
Free cash flow (t + 1) -469.58
Terminal Value -9,100.44
Present Value of Terminal Value -6,440.19

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -7,835.69
Net Debt 6,805.28
Equity Value -14,640.97
Shares Outstanding 343.98
Equity Value Per Share -42.56