Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Etsy, Inc. (ETSY)

$95.5

+1.20 (+1.27%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 289.96 | 95.5 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 441.23603.69818.381,725.622,329.113,599.725,563.498,598.5713,289.3720,539.17
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 70.59104153465.92555.81739.991,143.681,767.602,731.894,222.22
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 43.4077.26104.97407.73481.54574.24887.501,371.662,119.953,276.46
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 27.2026.7448.0358.1974.27165.76256.18395.94611.93945.76
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 340.55624.29817.251,669.22984.613,019.894,667.337,213.5211,148.7417,230.75
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 78.3433.3265.17169.41247.47372.06575.03888.721,373.552,122.87
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 58.2865.43101.87261.13363.81484.14748.261,156.461,787.352,762.41
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -13.16-56.05-17.24-7.99-28.17-115.52-178.54-275.93-426.47-659.12
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 95.5
Beta 1.855
Diluted Shares Outstanding 146.68
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -4.63
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.41%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.713
Total Debt 2,388.12
Total Equity 14,008.26
Total Capital 16,396.38
Debt Weighting 14.56
Equity Weighting 85.44
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 441.23603.69818.381,725.622,329.113,599.725,563.498,598.5713,289.3720,539.17
EBITDA 70.59104153465.92555.81739.991,143.681,767.602,731.894,222.22
EBIT 43.4077.26104.97407.73481.54574.24887.501,371.662,119.953,276.46
Tax Rate -153.53%-40.69%-18.91%4.50%-4.63%-42.65%-42.65%-42.65%-42.65%-42.65%
EBIAT 110.02108.69124.81389.38503.85819.161,266.041,956.703,024.154,673.92
Depreciation 27.2026.7448.0358.1974.27165.76256.18395.94611.93945.76
Accounts Receivable -45.02-31.86-104.24-78.06-124.58-202.97-313.70-484.83-749.32
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -7.1536.44159.26102.68120.34264.12408.20630.89975.06
Capital Expenditure -13.16-56.05-17.24-7.99-28.17-115.52-178.54-275.93-426.47-659.12
UFCF 124.06131.56160.18494.60574.57865.151,404.832,171.213,355.675,186.31
WACC
PV UFCF 779.981,141.831,591.012,216.873,088.94
SUM PV UFCF 8,818.62

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.92
Free cash flow (t + 1) 5,290.03
Terminal Value 59,305.29
Present Value of Terminal Value 35,321.91

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 44,140.53
Net Debt 1,607.92
Equity Value 42,532.60
Shares Outstanding 146.68
Equity Value Per Share 289.96