Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Fagron NV (FAGR.BR)
16.4 €
-0.30 (-1.80%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 436.93 | 471.68 | 534.69 | 555.97 | 573.81 | 614.69 | 658.49 | 705.40 | 755.66 | 809.50 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 87.79 | 81.45 | 93.41 | 111.61 | 110.94 | 115.86 | 124.11 | 132.95 | 142.43 | 152.57 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 72.70 | 65.21 | 67.45 | 84.13 | 84.45 | 89.66 | 96.05 | 102.89 | 110.22 | 118.07 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 15.09 | 16.24 | 25.96 | 27.48 | 26.48 | 26.20 | 28.06 | 30.06 | 32.21 | 34.50 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 60.77 | 77.58 | 106.68 | 84.25 | 70.65 | 95.61 | 102.43 | 109.72 | 117.54 | 125.92 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 62.87 | 74.66 | 77.48 | 79.79 | 90.83 | 92.07 | 98.63 | 105.65 | 113.18 | 121.24 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 58.95 | 63.92 | 77.30 | 72.25 | 83.66 | 84.92 | 90.97 | 97.45 | 104.40 | 111.83 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -10.03 | -15.69 | -22.17 | -18.42 | -20.73 | -20.53 | -21.99 | -23.56 | -25.23 | -27.03 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 16.4 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.446 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 72.72 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 20.59 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.90% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 5.808 |
| Total Debt | 335.59 |
| Total Equity | 1,192.53 |
| Total Capital | 1,528.11 |
| Debt Weighting | 21.96 |
| Equity Weighting | 78.04 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 436.93 | 471.68 | 534.69 | 555.97 | 573.81 | 614.69 | 658.49 | 705.40 | 755.66 | 809.50 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 87.79 | 81.45 | 93.41 | 111.61 | 110.94 | 115.86 | 124.11 | 132.95 | 142.43 | 152.57 |
| EBIT | 72.70 | 65.21 | 67.45 | 84.13 | 84.45 | 89.66 | 96.05 | 102.89 | 110.22 | 118.07 |
| Tax Rate | 16.63% | 22.52% | 41.25% | 19.15% | 20.59% | 24.03% | 24.03% | 24.03% | 24.03% | 24.03% |
| EBIAT | 60.61 | 50.53 | 39.63 | 68.02 | 67.06 | 68.12 | 72.97 | 78.17 | 83.74 | 89.70 |
| Depreciation | 15.09 | 16.24 | 25.96 | 27.48 | 26.48 | 26.20 | 28.06 | 30.06 | 32.21 | 34.50 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories | - | -11.79 | -2.82 | -2.31 | -11.04 | -1.23 | -6.56 | -7.03 | -7.53 | -8.06 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 4.97 | 13.39 | -5.05 | 11.41 | 1.26 | 6.05 | 6.48 | 6.94 | 7.44 |
| Capital Expenditure | -10.03 | -15.69 | -22.17 | -18.42 | -20.73 | -20.53 | -21.99 | -23.56 | -25.23 | -27.03 |
| UFCF | 65.67 | 44.24 | 53.98 | 69.72 | 73.18 | 73.82 | 78.54 | 84.13 | 90.13 | 96.55 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 70.33 | 71.30 | 72.78 | 74.29 | 75.83 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 364.53 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 4.95 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 98.48 |
| Terminal Value | 3,338.22 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 2,621.82 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 2,986.35 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 264.94 |
| Equity Value | 2,721.41 |
| Shares Outstanding | 72.72 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 37.43 |