Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Fermentalg SA (FALG.PA)
1.135 €
-0.01 (-1.13%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 0.17 | 0.25 | 1.89 | 2.20 | 5.65 | 18.14 | 58.28 | 187.25 | 601.58 | 1,932.69 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -5.28 | -5 | -6.32 | -4.83 | -5.44 | -210.12 | -675.06 | -2,168.75 | -6,967.51 | -22,384.46 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -7.20 | -7.63 | -13.56 | -6.15 | -6.16 | -306.27 | -983.93 | -3,161.08 | -10,155.56 | -32,626.64 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 1.91 | 2.63 | 7.24 | 1.32 | 0.72 | 96.14 | 308.88 | 992.33 | 3,188.04 | 10,242.19 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 21.75 | 12.49 | 8.02 | 11.84 | 26.01 | 700.19 | 2,249.48 | 7,226.87 | 23,217.70 | 74,591.24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 0.84 | 1.06 | 1.55 | 2.02 | 2.91 | 41.82 | 134.35 | 431.62 | 1,386.65 | 4,454.88 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 1.86 | 1.57 | 2.10 | 1.48 | 1.43 | 70.17 | 225.44 | 724.26 | 2,326.83 | 7,475.38 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -3.57 | -5.02 | -3.28 | -3.12 | -4.32 | -164.51 | -528.51 | -1,697.94 | -5,454.97 | -17,525.11 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 1.135 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.245 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 107.49 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -4.92 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 7.19% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.372 |
| Total Debt | 9.61 |
| Total Equity | 122 |
| Total Capital | 131.60 |
| Debt Weighting | 7.30 |
| Equity Weighting | 92.70 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 0.17 | 0.25 | 1.89 | 2.20 | 5.65 | 18.14 | 58.28 | 187.25 | 601.58 | 1,932.69 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -5.28 | -5 | -6.32 | -4.83 | -5.44 | -210.12 | -675.06 | -2,168.75 | -6,967.51 | -22,384.46 |
| EBIT | -7.20 | -7.63 | -13.56 | -6.15 | -6.16 | -306.27 | -983.93 | -3,161.08 | -10,155.56 | -32,626.64 |
| Tax Rate | 0.05% | 0.00% | -23.01% | -0.01% | -4.92% | -5.58% | -5.58% | -5.58% | -5.58% | -5.58% |
| EBIAT | -7.19 | -7.63 | -16.69 | -6.15 | -6.46 | -323.35 | -1,038.81 | -3,337.38 | -10,721.96 | -34,446.31 |
| Depreciation | 1.91 | 2.63 | 7.24 | 1.32 | 0.72 | 96.14 | 308.88 | 992.33 | 3,188.04 | 10,242.19 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories | - | -0.22 | -0.49 | -0.47 | -0.89 | -38.91 | -92.53 | -297.27 | -955.03 | -3,068.23 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -0.28 | 0.53 | -0.62 | -0.05 | 68.74 | 155.27 | 498.82 | 1,602.57 | 5,148.55 |
| Capital Expenditure | -3.57 | -5.02 | -3.28 | -3.12 | -4.32 | -164.51 | -528.51 | -1,697.94 | -5,454.97 | -17,525.11 |
| UFCF | -8.85 | -10.53 | -12.69 | -9.05 | -11 | -361.88 | -1,195.71 | -3,841.44 | -12,341.35 | -39,648.92 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -331.36 | -1,002.54 | -2,949.22 | -8,675.87 | -25,522.27 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -38,481.25 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 9.21 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -40,441.89 |
| Terminal Value | -560,913.94 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -361,064.01 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -399,545.26 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -16.40 |
| Equity Value | -399,528.86 |
| Shares Outstanding | 107.49 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -3,717.03 |