Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

FuelCell Energy, Inc. (FCEL)

$3.41

+0.02 (+0.59%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 0.43 | 3.41 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 95.6789.4460.7570.8769.5965.4561.5757.9254.4851.24
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -36.17-32.65-54.48-54.39-73.82-45.40-42.71-40.17-37.79-35.54
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -44.69-41.29-66.84-73.77-93.69-57.81-54.38-51.15-48.12-45.26
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 8.528.6512.3519.3819.8712.4111.6710.9810.339.72
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 49.2939.299.43149.87432.21123.52116.19109.30102.8196.71
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 68.5223.0410.9817.6023.6522.8221.4620.1918.9917.86
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 74.5053.5756.6950.9767.0752.2949.1846.2643.5240.93
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 42.6222.5916.949.5819.2718.1817.1016.0915.1314.24
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -12.35-10.03-2.15-0.38-6.35-4.89-4.60-4.32-4.07-3.83
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 3.41
Beta 3.845
Diluted Shares Outstanding 334.74
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -0.03
After-tax Cost of Debt 7.53%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 21.952
Total Debt 97.84
Total Equity 1,141.47
Total Capital 1,239.31
Debt Weighting 7.89
Equity Weighting 92.11
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 95.6789.4460.7570.8769.5965.4561.5757.9254.4851.24
EBITDA -36.17-32.65-54.48-54.39-73.82-45.40-42.71-40.17-37.79-35.54
EBIT -44.69-41.29-66.84-73.77-93.69-57.81-54.38-51.15-48.12-45.26
Tax Rate -0.08%5.99%-0.14%-0.05%-0.03%1.14%1.14%1.14%1.14%1.14%
EBIAT -44.72-38.82-66.93-73.81-93.72-57.16-53.76-50.57-47.57-44.75
Depreciation 8.528.6512.3519.3819.8712.4111.6710.9810.339.72
Accounts Receivable -45.4812.06-6.63-6.050.841.351.271.201.13
Inventories -20.92-3.125.72-16.1014.793.102.922.752.58
Accounts Payable --20.02-5.65-7.379.69-1.08-1.08-1.02-0.95-0.90
Capital Expenditure -12.35-10.03-2.15-0.38-6.35-4.89-4.60-4.32-4.07-3.83
UFCF -48.566.18-53.44-63.08-92.66-35.09-43.31-40.74-38.32-36.04
WACC
PV UFCF -29.05-29.67-23.10-17.99-14.01
SUM PV UFCF -113.82

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 20.81
Free cash flow (t + 1) -36.77
Terminal Value -195.46
Present Value of Terminal Value -75.95

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -189.77
Net Debt -334.37
Equity Value 144.60
Shares Outstanding 334.74
Equity Value Per Share 0.43