Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

FirstEnergy Corp. (FE)

$38.27

-0.10 (-0.26%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 24.89 | 38.27 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 14,01711,26111,03510,79011,13210,555.3810,008.639,490.208,998.628,532.50
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,9704,2733,3043,3924,2703,203.243,037.322,879.992,730.812,589.36
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 2702,8892,0872,1932,6691,916.731,817.451,723.311,634.041,549.40
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1,7001,3841,2171,1991,6011,286.511,219.871,156.681,096.771,039.96
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 5893676271,7341,462893.97847.67803.76762.12722.65
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,6541,5111,2941,4391,2791,304.011,236.471,172.421,111.691,054.11
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 463252281317260282.06267.45253.60240.46228
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1,0279651,005827943868.48823.49780.84740.39702.04
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -2,841-2,675-2,665-2,657-2,445-2,422.70-2,297.21-2,178.22-2,065.39-1,958.41
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 38.27
Beta 0.421
Diluted Shares Outstanding 545
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 17.70
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.68%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 4.750
Total Debt 23,854
Total Equity 20,857.15
Total Capital 44,711.15
Debt Weighting 53.35
Equity Weighting 46.65
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 14,01711,26111,03510,79011,13210,555.3810,008.639,490.208,998.628,532.50
EBITDA 1,9704,2733,3043,3924,2703,203.243,037.322,879.992,730.812,589.36
EBIT 2702,8892,0872,1932,6691,916.731,817.451,723.311,634.041,549.40
Tax Rate -107.96%10.85%18.35%4.43%17.70%-11.33%-11.33%-11.33%-11.33%-11.33%
EBIAT 561.502,575.641,703.982,095.882,196.492,133.822,023.291,918.491,819.111,724.88
Depreciation 1,7001,3841,2171,1991,6011,286.511,219.871,156.681,096.771,039.96
Accounts Receivable -143217-145160-25.0167.5564.0560.7357.58
Inventories -211-29-3657-22.0614.6113.8513.1412.46
Accounts Payable --6240-178116-74.52-44.99-42.66-40.45-38.35
Capital Expenditure -2,841-2,675-2,665-2,657-2,445-2,422.70-2,297.21-2,178.22-2,065.39-1,958.41
UFCF -579.501,576.64483.98278.881,685.49876.03983.12932.20883.91838.12
WACC
PV UFCF 840.88905.81824.43750.36682.95
SUM PV UFCF 4,004.43

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.18
Free cash flow (t + 1) 854.89
Terminal Value 39,214.96
Present Value of Terminal Value 31,954.35

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 35,958.78
Net Debt 22,392
Equity Value 13,566.78
Shares Outstanding 545
Equity Value Per Share 24.89