Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Fuchs Petrolub SE (FPE.DE)

29.7 €

-0.75 (-2.46%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 3,091.13 | 29.7 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	2,567	2,572	2,378	2,871	3,412	3,686.90	3,983.95	4,304.93	4,651.77	5,026.55
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	444	403	395	447	456	578.92	625.56	675.96	730.42	789.27
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	386	324	315	361	362	472.40	510.46	551.58	596.02	644.04
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	58	79	80	86	94	106.52	115.10	124.37	134.40	145.22
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	195	219	209	146	119	246.82	266.71	288.20	311.42	336.51
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	410	381	359	507	635	605.77	654.58	707.32	764.31	825.88
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	213	219	217	227	231	299.48	323.61	349.69	377.86	408.30
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-121	-121.24	-112.09	-135.33	-160.83	-173.79	-187.79	-202.92	-219.27	-236.94
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 29.7
Beta	0.938
Diluted Shares Outstanding	3.84
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	27.45
After-tax Cost of Debt	2.43%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	8.130
Total Debt	179
Total Equity	114.13
Total Capital	293.13
Debt Weighting	61.06
Equity Weighting	38.94
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	2,567	2,572	2,378	2,871	3,412	3,686.90	3,983.95	4,304.93	4,651.77	5,026.55
EBITDA	444	403	395	447	456	578.92	625.56	675.96	730.42	789.27
EBIT	386	324	315	361	362	472.40	510.46	551.58	596.02	644.04
Tax Rate	24.41%	28.08%	28.57%	29.33%	27.45%	27.57%	27.57%	27.57%	27.57%	27.57%
EBIAT	291.78	233.03	225	255.12	262.63	342.17	369.74	399.53	431.72	466.50
Depreciation	58	79	80	86	94	106.52	115.10	124.37	134.40	145.22
Accounts Receivable	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Inventories	-	29	22	-148	-128	29.23	-48.81	-52.74	-56.99	-61.58
Accounts Payable	-	6	-2	10	4	68.48	24.13	26.07	28.17	30.44
Capital Expenditure	-121	-121.24	-112.09	-135.33	-160.83	-173.79	-187.79	-202.92	-219.27	-236.94
UFCF	228.78	225.80	212.91	67.79	71.80	372.61	272.37	294.32	318.03	343.65
WACC
PV UFCF						356.05	248.70	256.80	265.16	273.79
SUM PV UFCF										1,400.51

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	4.65
Free cash flow (t + 1)	350.52
Terminal Value	13,227.31
Present Value of Terminal Value	10,538.42

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	11,938.93
Net Debt	60
Equity Value	11,878.93
Shares Outstanding	3.84
Equity Value Per Share	3,091.13