Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

FirstService Corporation (FSV.TO)

$178.52

+0.64 (+0.36%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 14.31 | 178.52 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,705.461,931.472,407.412,772.423,249.073,819.684,490.495,279.116,206.247,296.18
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 127.60156.18-112.83245.82303.09222.13261.14307360.91424.30
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 85.55103.41-192.38147.44204.12106.79125.55147.60173.52203.99
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 42.0552.7779.5698.3898.97115.33135.59159.40187.39220.30
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 57.1966.34121.20184.30165.66180.05211.67248.84292.54343.92
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 186.84249.26397.88426.29551.56555.69653.28768.01902.881,061.45
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 37.9648.2394.51141.98111.84131.49154.58181.73213.64251.16
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 40.1841.7176.2398.5091.26107.28126.12148.27174.31204.93
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -36.26-40.60-46.63-39.42-58.20-71.64-84.22-99.01-116.40-136.84
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 178.52
Beta 0.947
Diluted Shares Outstanding 44.40
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 35.31
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.26%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.262
Total Debt 823.19
Total Equity 7,926.47
Total Capital 8,749.65
Debt Weighting 9.41
Equity Weighting 90.59
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,705.461,931.472,407.412,772.423,249.073,819.684,490.495,279.116,206.247,296.18
EBITDA 127.60156.18-112.83245.82303.09222.13261.14307360.91424.30
EBIT 85.55103.41-192.38147.44204.12106.79125.55147.60173.52203.99
Tax Rate 46.54%42.83%-25.50%40.01%35.31%27.84%27.84%27.84%27.84%27.84%
EBIAT 45.7459.12-241.4488.45132.0577.0790.60106.51125.22147.21
Depreciation 42.0552.7779.5698.3898.97115.33135.59159.40187.39220.30
Accounts Receivable --62.42-148.62-28.41-125.28-4.12-97.59-114.73-134.88-158.57
Inventories --10.27-46.28-47.4730.13-19.64-23.09-27.15-31.91-37.52
Accounts Payable -1.5234.5222.27-7.2416.0318.8422.1526.0430.61
Capital Expenditure -36.26-40.60-46.63-39.41-58.20-71.64-84.22-99.01-116.40-136.84
UFCF 51.530.13-368.9093.8170.43113.0240.1347.1755.4665.20
WACC
PV UFCF 105.9235.2438.8342.7947.14
SUM PV UFCF 269.93

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.70
Free cash flow (t + 1) 66.50
Terminal Value 1,414.91
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,023.07

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,293
Net Debt 657.52
Equity Value 635.48
Shares Outstanding 44.40
Equity Value Per Share 14.31