Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Galp Energia, SGPS, S.A. (GALP.LS)

12.085 €

+0.01 (+0.04%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 0.83 | 12.085 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 15,20417,18216,56011,38916,11116,901.4417,730.6618,600.5719,513.1520,470.51
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,2031,5781,268-1571,7321,153.531,210.131,269.501,331.791,397.13
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,2031,5781,268-157771145.39152.52160167.85176.09
EBIT (%)
Depreciation ----9611,008.151,057.611,109.501,163.931,221.04
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 1,2631,7081,5911,8272,9342,099.432,202.442,310.492,423.852,542.77
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 9701,1711,0557081,0081,083.011,136.151,191.891,250.371,311.71
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 227933852650811771.01808.84848.53890.16933.83
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -791-1,110-1,111-649-779-977.09-1,025.03-1,075.32-1,128.07-1,183.42
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 12.085
Beta 0.889
Diluted Shares Outstanding 834.85
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 99.53
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.01%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.710
Total Debt 5,479
Total Equity 10,089.14
Total Capital 15,568.14
Debt Weighting 35.19
Equity Weighting 64.81
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 15,20417,18216,56011,38916,11116,901.4417,730.6618,600.5719,513.1520,470.51
EBITDA 1,2031,5781,268-1571,7321,153.531,210.131,269.501,331.791,397.13
EBIT 1,2031,5781,268-157771145.39152.52160167.85176.09
Tax Rate 51.81%56.13%69.59%-122.18%99.53%30.97%30.97%30.97%30.97%30.97%
EBIAT 579.78692.30385.65-348.823.66100.35105.28110.44115.86121.55
Depreciation ----9611,008.151,057.611,109.501,163.931,221.04
Accounts Receivable ----------
Inventories --201116347-300-75.01-53.13-55.74-58.48-61.35
Accounts Payable -706-81-202161-39.9937.8339.6841.6343.67
Capital Expenditure -791-1,110-1,111-649-779-977.09-1,025.03-1,075.32-1,128.07-1,183.42
UFCF -211.2287.30-690.35-852.8246.6616.42122.56128.57134.88141.49
WACC
PV UFCF 15.64111.16111.06110.96110.86
SUM PV UFCF 459.69

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.00
Free cash flow (t + 1) 144.32
Terminal Value 4,810.80
Present Value of Terminal Value 3,769.39

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 4,229.08
Net Debt 3,537
Equity Value 692.08
Shares Outstanding 834.85
Equity Value Per Share 0.83