Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Gibson Energy Inc. (GEI.TO)

$22.4

+0.13 (+0.58%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 8.69 | 22.4 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 6,100.846,846.597,336.324,938.077,211.157,800.998,439.089,129.369,876.1010,683.93
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 286.84479.46452.81384.90416.44490.62530.76574.17621.13671.94
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 57.11282.24277.72215.48242.58258.55279.70302.58327.33354.10
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 229.73197.21175.09169.42173.86232.07251.06271.59293.81317.84
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 33.9796.4654.7162.1371.5777.4283.7590.6098.01106.03
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 499.97278.13432.85330.36667.92532.18575.71622.81673.75728.86
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 169.9685.63137.17163.11255.13198.88215.15232.75251.79272.38
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 413.74246.80369.26339.29630.33484.16523.76566.60612.95663.08
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -175.97-228.49-271.42-215.10-117.67-248.21-268.51-290.48-314.24-339.94
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 22.4
Beta 1.410
Diluted Shares Outstanding 149.13
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 19.97
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.82%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.618
Total Debt 1,742.39
Total Equity 3,340.41
Total Capital 5,082.80
Debt Weighting 34.28
Equity Weighting 65.72
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 6,100.846,846.597,336.324,938.077,211.157,800.998,439.089,129.369,876.1010,683.93
EBITDA 286.84479.46452.81384.90416.44490.62530.76574.17621.13671.94
EBIT 57.11282.24277.72215.48242.58258.55279.70302.58327.33354.10
Tax Rate 124.27%-10.47%7.12%19.49%19.97%32.07%32.07%32.07%32.07%32.07%
EBIAT -13.86311.78257.95173.48194.15175.62189.99205.53222.34240.53
Depreciation 229.73197.21175.09169.42173.86232.07251.06271.59293.81317.84
Accounts Receivable -221.84-154.72102.49-337.56135.74-43.53-47.09-50.94-55.11
Inventories -84.33-51.54-25.94-92.0256.25-16.27-17.60-19.04-20.60
Accounts Payable --166.95122.46-29.96291.04-146.1739.6042.8446.3550.14
Capital Expenditure -175.97-228.49-271.42-215.10-117.67-248.21-268.51-290.48-314.24-339.94
UFCF 39.90419.7277.83174.39111.80205.29152.33164.79178.27192.85
WACC
PV UFCF 190.19130.75131.04131.33131.62
SUM PV UFCF 714.92

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.94
Free cash flow (t + 1) 196.71
Terminal Value 3,311.63
Present Value of Terminal Value 2,260.11

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 2,975.03
Net Debt 1,679.70
Equity Value 1,295.33
Shares Outstanding 149.13
Equity Value Per Share 8.69