Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO)

$7.61

-0.12 (-1.55%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 249.37 | 7.61 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,263.422,331.392,477.922,350.102,256.612,257.472,258.322,259.182,260.042,260.89
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 436.52435.74465.10395.01464.79425.08425.25425.41425.57425.73
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 312.22309.31334.27260.33329.61299.05299.16299.28299.39299.50
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 124.30126.43130.82134.68135.18126.04126.08126.13126.18126.23
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 81.3831.2632.46283.52506.49184.01184.08184.15184.22184.29
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 408.06461.06442.18368.95372.08396.58396.73396.88397.03397.18
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 92.5993.0399.2386.9264.3084.1384.1684.1984.2384.26
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -148.41-195.67-117.24-108.80-69.39-123.64-123.69-123.74-123.79-123.83
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 7.61
Beta 0.516
Diluted Shares Outstanding 120.73
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 59.85
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.70%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.131
Total Debt 3,062.56
Total Equity 918.77
Total Capital 3,981.33
Debt Weighting 76.92
Equity Weighting 23.08
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,263.422,331.392,477.922,350.102,256.612,257.472,258.322,259.182,260.042,260.89
EBITDA 436.52435.74465.10395.01464.79425.08425.25425.41425.57425.73
EBIT 312.22309.31334.27260.33329.61299.05299.16299.28299.39299.50
Tax Rate 3.75%2.83%3.99%8.94%59.85%15.87%15.87%15.87%15.87%15.87%
EBIAT 300.52300.55320.94237.06132.34251.58251.68251.77251.87251.97
Depreciation 124.30126.43130.82134.68135.18126.04126.08126.13126.18126.23
Accounts Receivable --5318.8873.23-3.13-24.50-0.15-0.15-0.15-0.15
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -0.446.20-12.31-22.6319.830.030.030.030.03
Capital Expenditure -148.41-195.67-117.24-108.80-69.39-123.64-123.69-123.74-123.79-123.83
UFCF 276.41178.76359.60323.86172.36249.31253.95254.05254.15254.24
WACC
PV UFCF 242.71240.68234.40228.28222.32
SUM PV UFCF 1,168.38

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 2.72
Free cash flow (t + 1) 259.33
Terminal Value 36,017.60
Present Value of Terminal Value 31,494.86

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 32,663.24
Net Debt 2,556.07
Equity Value 30,107.18
Shares Outstanding 120.73
Equity Value Per Share 249.37