Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Guardforce AI Co., Limited (GFAI)
$4.04
-0.02 (-0.49%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 37.34 | 38.57 | 37.65 | 35.15 | 34.48 | 33.82 | 33.17 | 32.54 | 31.91 | 31.30 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 3.69 | 5.18 | 2.91 | 1.33 | -6.50 | 1.08 | 1.06 | 1.04 | 1.02 | 1 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 1.21 | -0.11 | -2.12 | -3.70 | -12.48 | -3.34 | -3.28 | -3.22 | -3.15 | -3.09 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 2.49 | 5.29 | 5.03 | 5.03 | 5.98 | 4.42 | 4.34 | 4.26 | 4.17 | 4.09 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 4.44 | 6.08 | 8.41 | 14.33 | 6.93 | 7.50 | 7.36 | 7.21 | 7.08 | 6.94 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 6.38 | 5.95 | 5.98 | 5.09 | 21.85 | 8.54 | 8.37 | 8.21 | 8.06 | 7.90 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 0 | 0 | 0.50 | 1.39 | 5.11 | 1.36 | 1.33 | 1.31 | 1.28 | 1.26 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 1.44 | 1.40 | 1.37 | 0.68 | 2.06 | 1.29 | 1.26 | 1.24 | 1.21 | 1.19 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -1.95 | -0.48 | -1.43 | -5.25 | -7.64 | -3.20 | -3.14 | -3.08 | -3.02 | -2.97 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 4.04 |
---|---|
Beta | 2.831 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 1.24 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | -0.17 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.36% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 17.718 |
Total Debt | 28.41 |
Total Equity | 5.01 |
Total Capital | 33.42 |
Debt Weighting | 85.01 |
Equity Weighting | 14.99 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 37.34 | 38.57 | 37.65 | 35.15 | 34.48 | 33.82 | 33.17 | 32.54 | 31.91 | 31.30 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 3.69 | 5.18 | 2.91 | 1.33 | -6.50 | 1.08 | 1.06 | 1.04 | 1.02 | 1 |
EBIT | 1.21 | -0.11 | -2.12 | -3.70 | -12.48 | -3.34 | -3.28 | -3.22 | -3.15 | -3.09 |
Tax Rate | 57.13% | 63.63% | -7.82% | 11.93% | -0.17% | 24.94% | 24.94% | 24.94% | 24.94% | 24.94% |
EBIAT | 0.52 | -0.04 | -2.29 | -3.26 | -12.50 | -2.51 | -2.46 | -2.41 | -2.37 | -2.32 |
Depreciation | 2.49 | 5.29 | 5.03 | 5.03 | 5.98 | 4.42 | 4.34 | 4.26 | 4.17 | 4.09 |
Accounts Receivable | - | 0.43 | -0.03 | 0.89 | -16.76 | 13.31 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.15 |
Inventories | - | -0 | -0.50 | -0.89 | -3.72 | 3.75 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
Accounts Payable | - | -0.04 | -0.03 | -0.69 | 1.39 | -0.77 | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.02 |
Capital Expenditure | -1.95 | -0.48 | -1.43 | -5.25 | -7.64 | -3.20 | -3.14 | -3.08 | -3.02 | -2.97 |
UFCF | 1.06 | 5.15 | 0.76 | -4.18 | -33.25 | 15 | -1.10 | -1.08 | -1.06 | -1.04 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 14.10 | -0.97 | -0.90 | -0.83 | -0.76 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 10.64 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 6.36 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | -1.06 |
Terminal Value | -24.27 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | -17.83 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | -7.19 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 21.48 |
Equity Value | -28.67 |
Shares Outstanding | 1.24 |
Equity Value Per Share | -23.12 |