Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Graham Holdings Company (GHC)

$638.61

-4.23 (-0.66%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 2,213.97 | 638.61 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,591.852,695.972,932.102,889.123,185.973,357.903,539.103,730.083,931.364,143.51
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 329.54473.45662.07697.14718.30668.43704.50742.52782.59824.82
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 216.23361.21456.23445.98482.32455.84480.44506.36533.69562.49
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 113.31112.25205.83251.16235.98212.59224.06236.15248.90262.33
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 947.17767.84800.131,001.57970.331,057.321,114.371,174.511,237.891,304.68
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 644.22601.45634.95566.47640.22728.81768.14809.59853.28899.32
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 60.6169.48108.93120.62141.47115.82122.07128.66135.60142.92
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 385.93337.12366.96384.74126.98384.23404.96426.82449.85474.12
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -60.36-98.19-93.50-69.59-162.54-111.95-118-124.36-131.07-138.15
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 638.61
Beta 1.027
Diluted Shares Outstanding 4.96
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 21.70
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.31%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.549
Total Debt 1,150.36
Total Equity 3,170.70
Total Capital 4,321.05
Debt Weighting 26.62
Equity Weighting 73.38
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 2,591.852,695.972,932.102,889.123,185.973,357.903,539.103,730.083,931.364,143.51
EBITDA 329.54473.45662.07697.14718.30668.43704.50742.52782.59824.82
EBIT 216.23361.21456.23445.98482.32455.84480.44506.36533.69562.49
Tax Rate -65.24%16.17%23.13%26.25%21.70%4.40%4.40%4.40%4.40%4.40%
EBIAT 357.30302.81350.73328.91377.67435.79459.30484.09510.21537.74
Depreciation 113.31112.25205.83251.16235.98212.59224.06236.15248.90262.33
Accounts Receivable -42.77-33.5168.48-73.75-88.59-39.33-41.45-43.69-46.05
Inventories --8.87-39.45-11.69-20.8525.65-6.25-6.59-6.94-7.32
Accounts Payable --48.8029.8417.78-257.76257.2420.7321.8523.0324.28
Capital Expenditure -60.36-98.19-93.50-69.59-162.54-111.95-118-124.36-131.07-138.15
UFCF 410.25301.97419.94585.0598.76730.72540.53569.70600.44632.84
WACC
PV UFCF 683.62473.09466.48459.96453.53
SUM PV UFCF 2,536.68

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.89
Free cash flow (t + 1) 645.50
Terminal Value 13,200.32
Present Value of Terminal Value 9,460.17

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 11,996.85
Net Debt 1,004.47
Equity Value 10,992.38
Shares Outstanding 4.96
Equity Value Per Share 2,213.97