Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Public Joint Stock Company Mining a... (GMKN.ME)
16720 ₽
+170.00 (+1.03%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 11,670 | 13,563 | 15,545 | 17,852 | 1,184,477 | 20,671,069.88 | 360,744,133.19 | 6,295,577,848.39 | 109,868,177,466.49 | 1,917,380,216,797.87 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 5,177 | 8,687 | 5,710 | 77,515 | 615,581 | 26,100,230.47 | 455,491,905.92 | 7,949,082,158.78 | 138,724,544,489.72 | 2,420,971,234,095.63 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 4,412 | 7,797.91 | 4,690.98 | 76,344.75 | 537,935.34 | 24,745,186.03 | 431,844,153.98 | 7,536,390,032.76 | 131,522,388,812.71 | 2,295,281,783,957.94 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 765 | 889.09 | 1,019.02 | 1,170.25 | 77,645.67 | 1,355,044.44 | 23,647,751.94 | 412,692,126.02 | 7,202,155,677.01 | 125,689,450,137.69 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 1,471 | 2,784 | 5,191 | 416,060 | 132,357 | 99,564,535.01 | 1,737,564,726.47 | 30,323,359,399.95 | 529,192,444,628.07 | 9,235,277,653,697.96 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | - | - | - | 22,277 | 1,478,074.95 | 25,794,836.50 | 450,162,279.31 | 7,856,071,417.56 | 137,101,354,233.19 | 2,392,643,897,120.26 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 2,280 | 2,475 | 2,192 | 226,969 | 347,874 | 55,921,380.02 | 975,919,963.56 | 17,031,406,859.21 | 297,226,033,316.65 | 5,187,082,641,581.80 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 357 | 425 | 267 | 31,203 | 43,209 | 7,703,914.26 | 134,445,961.87 | 2,346,302,937.49 | 40,946,841,375.62 | 714,589,660,121.74 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -1,553 | -1,804.91 | -2,068.67 | -2,375.68 | -157,625.77 | -2,750,828.67 | -48,006,480.06 | -837,791,954.60 | -14,620,846,150.26 | -255,157,788,249.45 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 16,720 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.344 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 152.86 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 25.32 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.33% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 5.323 |
| Total Debt | 824,141 |
| Total Equity | 2,555,876 |
| Total Capital | 3,380,017 |
| Debt Weighting | 24.38 |
| Equity Weighting | 75.62 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 11,670 | 13,563 | 15,545 | 17,852 | 1,184,477 | 20,671,069.88 | 360,744,133.19 | 6,295,577,848.39 | 109,868,177,466.49 | 1,917,380,216,797.87 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 5,177 | 8,687 | 5,710 | 77,515 | 615,581 | 26,100,230.47 | 455,491,905.92 | 7,949,082,158.78 | 138,724,544,489.72 | 2,420,971,234,095.63 |
| EBIT | 4,412 | 7,797.91 | 4,690.98 | 76,344.75 | 537,935.34 | 24,745,186.03 | 431,844,153.98 | 7,536,390,032.76 | 131,522,388,812.71 | 2,295,281,783,957.94 |
| Tax Rate | 20.94% | 23.15% | 26.08% | 29.87% | 25.32% | 25.07% | 25.07% | 25.07% | 25.07% | 25.07% |
| EBIAT | 3,488.22 | 5,992.49 | 3,467.78 | 53,544.11 | 401,714.73 | 18,541,352.38 | 323,577,063.51 | 5,646,951,414.70 | 98,548,580,466.59 | 1,719,834,650,372.58 |
| Depreciation | 765 | 889.09 | 1,019.02 | 1,170.25 | 77,645.67 | 1,355,044.44 | 23,647,751.94 | 412,692,126.02 | 7,202,155,677.01 | 125,689,450,137.69 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | - | - | - | -1,455,797.95 | -24,316,761.54 | -424,367,442.81 | -7,405,909,138.26 | -129,245,282,815.63 | -2,255,542,542,887.07 |
| Inventories | - | -195 | 283 | -224,777 | -120,905 | -55,573,506.02 | -919,998,583.54 | -16,055,486,895.65 | -280,194,626,457.43 | -4,889,856,608,265.15 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 68 | -158 | 30,936 | 12,006 | 7,660,705.26 | 126,742,047.61 | 2,211,856,975.61 | 38,600,538,438.13 | 673,642,818,746.12 |
| Capital Expenditure | -1,553 | -1,804.91 | -2,068.67 | -203,704 | -287,813 | -2,750,828.67 | -48,006,480.06 | -837,791,954.60 | -14,620,846,150.26 | -255,157,788,249.45 |
| UFCF | 2,700.22 | 4,949.67 | 2,543.13 | -141,502.32 | -1,242,962.33 | -55,083,994.15 | -918,405,643.36 | -16,027,687,472.17 | -279,709,480,841.59 | -4,881,390,020,145.29 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -52,541,009.30 | -835,565,536.97 | -13,908,805,326.70 | -231,525,663,823.60 | -3,853,971,045,668.69 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -4,100,293,621,365.27 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 4.84 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -4,979,017,820,548.19 |
| Terminal Value | -175,317,528,892,542.06 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -138,417,269,950,072.70 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -142,517,563,571,437.97 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 691,784 |
| Equity Value | -142,517,564,263,222 |
| Shares Outstanding | 152.86 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -932,319,751,230.06 |