Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Public Joint Stock Company Mining a... (GMKN.ME)

16720 ₽

+170.00 (+1.03%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -932,319,751,230.06 | 16720 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 11,67013,56315,54517,8521,184,47720,671,069.88360,744,133.196,295,577,848.39109,868,177,466.491,917,380,216,797.87
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 5,1778,6875,71077,515615,58126,100,230.47455,491,905.927,949,082,158.78138,724,544,489.722,420,971,234,095.63
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 4,4127,797.914,690.9876,344.75537,935.3424,745,186.03431,844,153.987,536,390,032.76131,522,388,812.712,295,281,783,957.94
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 765889.091,019.021,170.2577,645.671,355,044.4423,647,751.94412,692,126.027,202,155,677.01125,689,450,137.69
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 1,4712,7845,191416,060132,35799,564,535.011,737,564,726.4730,323,359,399.95529,192,444,628.079,235,277,653,697.96
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables ---22,2771,478,074.9525,794,836.50450,162,279.317,856,071,417.56137,101,354,233.192,392,643,897,120.26
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 2,2802,4752,192226,969347,87455,921,380.02975,919,963.5617,031,406,859.21297,226,033,316.655,187,082,641,581.80
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 35742526731,20343,2097,703,914.26134,445,961.872,346,302,937.4940,946,841,375.62714,589,660,121.74
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1,553-1,804.91-2,068.67-2,375.68-157,625.77-2,750,828.67-48,006,480.06-837,791,954.60-14,620,846,150.26-255,157,788,249.45
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 16,720
Beta 0.344
Diluted Shares Outstanding 152.86
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 25.32
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.33%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 5.323
Total Debt 824,141
Total Equity 2,555,876
Total Capital 3,380,017
Debt Weighting 24.38
Equity Weighting 75.62
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 11,67013,56315,54517,8521,184,47720,671,069.88360,744,133.196,295,577,848.39109,868,177,466.491,917,380,216,797.87
EBITDA 5,1778,6875,71077,515615,58126,100,230.47455,491,905.927,949,082,158.78138,724,544,489.722,420,971,234,095.63
EBIT 4,4127,797.914,690.9876,344.75537,935.3424,745,186.03431,844,153.987,536,390,032.76131,522,388,812.712,295,281,783,957.94
Tax Rate 20.94%23.15%26.08%29.87%25.32%25.07%25.07%25.07%25.07%25.07%
EBIAT 3,488.225,992.493,467.7853,544.11401,714.7318,541,352.38323,577,063.515,646,951,414.7098,548,580,466.591,719,834,650,372.58
Depreciation 765889.091,019.021,170.2577,645.671,355,044.4423,647,751.94412,692,126.027,202,155,677.01125,689,450,137.69
Accounts Receivable -----1,455,797.95-24,316,761.54-424,367,442.81-7,405,909,138.26-129,245,282,815.63-2,255,542,542,887.07
Inventories --195283-224,777-120,905-55,573,506.02-919,998,583.54-16,055,486,895.65-280,194,626,457.43-4,889,856,608,265.15
Accounts Payable -68-15830,93612,0067,660,705.26126,742,047.612,211,856,975.6138,600,538,438.13673,642,818,746.12
Capital Expenditure -1,553-1,804.91-2,068.67-203,704-287,813-2,750,828.67-48,006,480.06-837,791,954.60-14,620,846,150.26-255,157,788,249.45
UFCF 2,700.224,949.672,543.13-141,502.32-1,242,962.33-55,083,994.15-918,405,643.36-16,027,687,472.17-279,709,480,841.59-4,881,390,020,145.29
WACC
PV UFCF -52,541,009.30-835,565,536.97-13,908,805,326.70-231,525,663,823.60-3,853,971,045,668.69
SUM PV UFCF -4,100,293,621,365.27

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.84
Free cash flow (t + 1) -4,979,017,820,548.19
Terminal Value -175,317,528,892,542.06
Present Value of Terminal Value -138,417,269,950,072.70

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -142,517,563,571,437.97
Net Debt 691,784
Equity Value -142,517,564,263,222
Shares Outstanding 152.86
Equity Value Per Share -932,319,751,230.06