Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Public Joint Stock Company Mining a... (GMKN.ME)
16720 ₽
+170.00 (+1.03%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 11,670 | 13,563 | 15,545 | 17,852 | 1,184,477 | 20,671,069.88 | 360,744,133.19 | 6,295,577,848.39 | 109,868,177,466.49 | 1,917,380,216,797.87 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 4,412 | 8,646 | 6,430 | 10,463 | 664,559 | 10,651,076.75 | 185,878,789.71 | 3,243,890,290.49 | 56,611,215,475.45 | 987,958,725,670.33 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 4,412 | 7,735 | 5,487 | 9,535 | 596,308 | 9,424,068.92 | 164,465,486.93 | 2,870,192,973.66 | 50,089,583,289.67 | 874,145,528,595.49 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | - | 911 | 943 | 928 | 68,251 | 1,227,007.84 | 21,413,302.78 | 373,697,316.83 | 6,521,632,185.78 | 113,813,197,074.84 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | -8,356 | 2,784 | 5,191 | 5,547 | 132,357 | 1,015,522.33 | 17,722,533.16 | 309,287,322.82 | 5,397,571,960.80 | 94,196,499,250.58 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | - | 1,199 | 1,125 | 1,237 | 110,715 | 1,671,960.88 | 29,178,464.54 | 509,212,148.25 | 8,886,588,653.02 | 155,085,573,193.50 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | 2,475 | 2,192 | 3,026 | 347,874 | 4,065,434.71 | 70,948,515.47 | 1,238,168,167.59 | 21,608,068,909.05 | 377,096,305,816.62 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | - | 425 | 267 | 416 | 43,209 | 559,634.49 | 9,766,541.36 | 170,442,193.67 | 2,974,496,326.37 | 51,909,848,171.04 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -1,480 | -1,324 | -1,760 | -2,764 | -287,813 | -3,040,611.44 | -53,063,665.49 | -926,048,149.52 | -16,161,061,761.80 | -282,037,081,337.49 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 16,720 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.352 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 152.86 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 25.32 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.33% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 6.289 |
| Total Debt | 824,141 |
| Total Equity | 2,555,876 |
| Total Capital | 3,380,017 |
| Debt Weighting | 24.38 |
| Equity Weighting | 75.62 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 11,670 | 13,563 | 15,545 | 17,852 | 1,184,477 | 20,671,069.88 | 360,744,133.19 | 6,295,577,848.39 | 109,868,177,466.49 | 1,917,380,216,797.87 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 4,412 | 8,646 | 6,430 | 10,463 | 664,559 | 10,651,076.75 | 185,878,789.71 | 3,243,890,290.49 | 56,611,215,475.45 | 987,958,725,670.33 |
| EBIT | 4,412 | 7,735 | 5,487 | 9,535 | 596,308 | 9,424,068.92 | 164,465,486.93 | 2,870,192,973.66 | 50,089,583,289.67 | 874,145,528,595.49 |
| Tax Rate | 20.94% | 23.15% | 26.08% | 29.87% | 25.32% | 25.07% | 25.07% | 25.07% | 25.07% | 25.07% |
| EBIAT | 3,488.22 | 5,944.15 | 4,056.23 | 6,687.34 | 445,305.76 | 7,061,372.76 | 123,232,556.98 | 2,150,610,597.73 | 37,531,688,512.66 | 654,989,631,362.11 |
| Depreciation | - | 911 | 943 | 928 | 68,251 | 1,227,007.84 | 21,413,302.78 | 373,697,316.83 | 6,521,632,185.78 | 113,813,197,074.84 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | - | 74 | -112 | -109,478 | -1,561,245.89 | -27,506,503.66 | -480,033,683.70 | -8,377,376,504.77 | -146,198,984,540.48 |
| Inventories | - | - | 283 | -834 | -344,848 | -3,717,560.71 | -66,883,080.76 | -1,167,219,652.12 | -20,369,900,741.46 | -355,488,236,907.57 |
| Accounts Payable | - | - | -158 | 149 | 42,793 | 516,425.49 | 9,206,906.87 | 160,675,652.32 | 2,804,054,132.69 | 48,935,351,844.67 |
| Capital Expenditure | -1,480 | -1,324 | -1,760 | -2,764 | -287,813 | -3,040,611.44 | -53,063,665.49 | -926,048,149.52 | -16,161,061,761.80 | -282,037,081,337.49 |
| UFCF | 2,008.22 | 5,531.15 | 3,438.23 | 4,054.34 | -185,789.24 | 485,388.06 | 6,399,516.72 | 111,682,081.53 | 1,949,035,823.11 | 34,013,877,496.08 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 459,778.40 | 5,742,038.96 | 94,920,919.17 | 1,569,125,698.89 | 25,939,018,294.23 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 27,609,266,729.65 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 5.57 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 34,694,155,046.01 |
| Terminal Value | 971,825,071,316.71 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 741,114,808,406.66 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 768,724,075,136.31 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 691,784 |
| Equity Value | 768,723,383,352.31 |
| Shares Outstanding | 152.86 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 5,028,825,725.71 |