Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Global Net Lease, Inc. (GNL-PB)
$18.5001
-0.20 (-1.07%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 282.21 | 306.21 | 330.10 | 391.23 | 378.86 | 408.85 | 441.21 | 476.14 | 513.82 | 554.50 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 196.48 | 117.78 | 230.33 | 281.18 | 254.20 | 259.07 | 279.58 | 301.71 | 325.59 | 351.36 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 71.30 | -13.39 | 87.55 | 117.86 | 100.18 | 85.03 | 91.76 | 99.02 | 106.86 | 115.32 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 125.18 | 131.17 | 142.78 | 163.32 | 154.03 | 174.04 | 187.82 | 202.69 | 218.73 | 236.04 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 100.32 | 270.30 | 124.24 | 89.67 | 103.34 | 173.07 | 186.77 | 201.55 | 217.51 | 234.72 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 47.20 | 51.21 | 55.21 | 65.43 | 63.36 | 68.38 | 73.79 | 79.63 | 85.94 | 92.74 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 31.53 | 22.90 | 28.31 | 25.89 | 22.89 | 32.61 | 35.20 | 37.98 | 40.99 | 44.23 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -1.45 | -17.35 | -6.38 | -7.92 | -9.60 | -10.36 | -11.18 | -12.07 | -13.02 | -14.06 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 18.5,001 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.226 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 103.69 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 136.27 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | -5.28% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.165 |
| Total Debt | 669.97 |
| Total Equity | 1,918.20 |
| Total Capital | 2,588.17 |
| Debt Weighting | 25.89 |
| Equity Weighting | 74.11 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 282.21 | 306.21 | 330.10 | 391.23 | 378.86 | 408.85 | 441.21 | 476.14 | 513.82 | 554.50 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 196.48 | 117.78 | 230.33 | 281.18 | 254.20 | 259.07 | 279.58 | 301.71 | 325.59 | 351.36 |
| EBIT | 71.30 | -13.39 | 87.55 | 117.86 | 100.18 | 85.03 | 91.76 | 99.02 | 106.86 | 115.32 |
| Tax Rate | 18.26% | 8.53% | 31.56% | 51.67% | 136.27% | 49.26% | 49.26% | 49.26% | 49.26% | 49.26% |
| EBIAT | 58.29 | -12.25 | 59.92 | 56.96 | -36.34 | 43.15 | 46.56 | 50.25 | 54.22 | 58.52 |
| Depreciation | 125.18 | 131.17 | 142.78 | 163.32 | 154.03 | 174.04 | 187.82 | 202.69 | 218.73 | 236.04 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -4.02 | -4 | -10.22 | 2.07 | -5.02 | -5.41 | -5.84 | -6.30 | -6.80 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | -8.63 | 5.41 | -2.42 | -3 | 9.73 | 2.58 | 2.79 | 3.01 | 3.24 |
| Capital Expenditure | -1.45 | -17.35 | -6.38 | -7.92 | -9.60 | -10.36 | -11.18 | -12.07 | -13.02 | -14.06 |
| UFCF | 182.01 | 88.93 | 197.73 | 199.71 | 107.15 | 211.53 | 220.36 | 237.81 | 256.63 | 276.95 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 200.64 | 198.25 | 202.92 | 207.71 | 212.61 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 1,022.13 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 5.43 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 282.49 |
| Terminal Value | 8,235.73 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 6,322.39 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 7,344.51 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 566.63 |
| Equity Value | 6,777.88 |
| Shares Outstanding | 103.69 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 65.37 |