Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Gogo Inc. (GOGO)

$12.9

+0.07 (+0.55%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -5.73 | 12.9 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 699.09893.76835.73269.72335.72317.33299.95283.53268253.33
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 61.4168.57100.15-116.1248.46-0.11-0.11-0.10-0.10-0.09
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -84.08-65.05-18.67-130.2932.98-38.09-36.01-34.04-32.17-30.41
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 145.49133.62118.8214.1715.4837.9835.9033.9332.0830.32
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 409.15223.48170.02435.35145.91195.95185.22175.08165.49156.43
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 117.90144.73113.7242.2537.7346.6944.1341.7239.4337.27
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 45.54193.04117.1428.1133.9839.7837.6035.5433.5931.75
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 27.1323.8617.1611.0117.2011.3010.6910.109.559.02
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -280.23-131.66-115.48-8.99-3.40-46.32-43.78-41.38-39.12-36.97
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 12.9
Beta 1.131
Diluted Shares Outstanding 82.27
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 598.47
After-tax Cost of Debt -48.40%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.098
Total Debt 694.76
Total Equity 1,061.23
Total Capital 1,755.99
Debt Weighting 39.57
Equity Weighting 60.43
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 699.09893.76835.73269.72335.72317.33299.95283.53268253.33
EBITDA 61.4168.57100.15-116.1248.46-0.11-0.11-0.10-0.10-0.09
EBIT -84.08-65.05-18.67-130.2932.98-38.09-36.01-34.04-32.17-30.41
Tax Rate 1.15%1.99%-0.69%-413.37%598.47%37.51%37.51%37.51%37.51%37.51%
EBIAT -83.11-63.75-18.80-668.85-164.38-23.80-22.50-21.27-20.10-19
Depreciation 145.49133.62118.8214.1715.4837.9835.9033.9332.0830.32
Accounts Receivable --26.8431.0171.474.52-8.962.562.422.282.16
Inventories --147.5075.9089.03-5.86-5.802.182.061.951.84
Accounts Payable --3.27-6.70-6.156.19-5.90-0.62-0.59-0.55-0.52
Capital Expenditure -280.23-131.66-115.48-8.99-3.40-46.32-43.78-41.38-39.12-36.97
UFCF -217.85-239.4184.75-509.32-147.45-52.80-26.27-24.83-23.47-22.18
WACC
PV UFCF -61.15-35.23-38.56-42.21-46.21
SUM PV UFCF -223.36

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) -13.65
Free cash flow (t + 1) -22.63
Terminal Value 144.58
Present Value of Terminal Value 301.16

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 77.80
Net Debt 548.85
Equity Value -471.05
Shares Outstanding 82.27
Equity Value Per Share -5.73