Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Barrick Gold Corporation (GOLD)

$16.74

+0.34 (+2.07%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 454.79 | 16.74 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 8,3747,2439,71712,59511,98513,346.0814,861.7316,549.5018,428.9420,521.83
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 5,1711,5528,2106,1865,8137,081.067,885.238,780.719,777.8910,888.32
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 3,524956,1783,9783,7114,524.895,038.765,610.986,248.196,957.77
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1,6471,4572,0322,2082,1022,556.182,846.473,169.733,529.703,930.55
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 2,2341,5713,3145,1885,2804,476.784,985.195,551.336,181.776,883.80
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 406430665766942842.68938.381,044.951,163.621,295.76
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,8901,851.892,2891,8781,7342,697.863,004.253,345.433,725.354,148.42
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 7607447159295391,029.761,146.711,276.931,421.951,583.43
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1,396-1,400-1,701-2,054-2,435-2,405.77-2,678.98-2,983.22-3,322.01-3,699.27
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 16.74
Beta 0.124
Diluted Shares Outstanding 1,779
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 56.35
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.75%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 3.433
Total Debt 5,473
Total Equity 29,780.46
Total Capital 35,253.46
Debt Weighting 15.52
Equity Weighting 84.48
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 8,3747,2439,71712,59511,98513,346.0814,861.7316,549.5018,428.9420,521.83
EBITDA 5,1711,5528,2106,1865,8137,081.067,885.238,780.719,777.8910,888.32
EBIT 3,524956,1783,9783,7114,524.895,038.765,610.986,248.196,957.77
Tax Rate 47.65%-551.90%37.56%53.01%56.35%-71.46%-71.46%-71.46%-71.46%-71.46%
EBIAT 1,844.74619.303,857.241,869.161,619.967,758.578,639.679,620.8410,713.4311,930.10
Depreciation 1,6471,4572,0322,2082,1022,556.182,846.473,169.733,529.703,930.55
Accounts Receivable --24-235-101-17699.32-95.70-106.57-118.67-132.15
Inventories -38.11-437.11411144-963.86-306.38-341.18-379.92-423.07
Accounts Payable --16-29214-390490.76116.94130.23145.01161.48
Capital Expenditure -1,396-1,400-1,701-2,054-2,435-2,405.77-2,678.98-2,983.22-3,322.01-3,699.27
UFCF 2,095.74674.413,487.132,547.16864.967,535.208,522.039,489.8310,567.5411,767.65
WACC
PV UFCF 7,292.367,981.608,601.609,269.769,989.82
SUM PV UFCF 43,135.14

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 3.33
Free cash flow (t + 1) 12,003
Terminal Value 902,481.35
Present Value of Terminal Value 766,136.39

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 809,271.52
Net Debt 193
Equity Value 809,078.52
Shares Outstanding 1,779
Equity Value Per Share 454.79