Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)

$97.5

-0.67 (-0.68%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 69.06 | 97.5 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 110,855136,819161,857182,527257,637319,239.48395,571.46490,154.85607,353.68752,575.41
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 24,39344,06251,50661,914103,521102,241.13126,687.57156,979.29194,513.93241,023.32
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 17,47835,02739,72548,21791,08081,520.49101,012.51125,165.17155,092.88192,176.48
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 6,9159,03511,78113,69712,44120,720.6425,675.0631,814.1139,421.0548,846.85
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 101,871109,140119,675136,694139,649239,236.53296,439.35367,319.69455,147.92563,976.39
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 18,70521,19327,49231,38440,27052,465.8965,010.7880,555.2399,816.45123,683.13
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 7491,1079997281,1701,886.672,337.782,896.763,589.394,447.63
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 3,1374,3785,5615,5896,0379,494.6011,764.8114,577.8418,063.4922,382.57
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -13,184-25,139-23,548-22,281-24,640-42,514-52,679.34-65,275.27-80,882.96-100,222.54
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 97.5
Beta 1.089
Diluted Shares Outstanding 13,553.48
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 16.20
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.02%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.105
Total Debt 28,395
Total Equity 1,321,464.30
Total Capital 1,349,859.30
Debt Weighting 2.10
Equity Weighting 97.90
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 110,855136,819161,857182,527257,637319,239.48395,571.46490,154.85607,353.68752,575.41
EBITDA 24,39344,06251,50661,914103,521102,241.13126,687.57156,979.29194,513.93241,023.32
EBIT 17,47835,02739,72548,21791,08081,520.49101,012.51125,165.17155,092.88192,176.48
Tax Rate 53.44%11.96%13.33%16.25%16.20%22.24%22.24%22.24%22.24%22.24%
EBIAT 8,138.3630,836.3634,429.6740,382.0676,322.9463,393.2478,550.9397,332.90120,605.76149,443.28
Depreciation 6,9159,03511,78113,69712,44120,720.6425,675.0631,814.1139,421.0548,846.85
Accounts Receivable --2,488-6,299-3,892-8,886-12,195.89-12,544.89-15,544.45-19,261.22-23,866.68
Inventories --358108271-442-716.67-451.11-558.98-692.63-858.24
Accounts Payable -1,2411,183284483,457.602,270.212,813.033,485.654,319.08
Capital Expenditure -13,184-25,139-23,548-22,281-24,640-42,514-52,679.34-65,275.27-80,882.96-100,222.54
UFCF 1,869.3613,127.3617,654.6728,205.0655,243.9432,144.9240,820.8550,581.3562,675.6477,661.75
WACC
PV UFCF 29,509.7034,402.2739,133.4344,515.2550,637.20
SUM PV UFCF 198,197.85

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.93
Free cash flow (t + 1) 79,214.98
Terminal Value 1,143,073.35
Present Value of Terminal Value 745,309.37

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 943,507.21
Net Debt 7,450
Equity Value 936,057.21
Shares Outstanding 13,553.48
Equity Value Per Share 69.06