Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Gaotu Techedu Inc. (GOTU)
$3.77
-0.10 (-2.58%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 63.57 | 338.38 | 1,139.96 | 1,049.88 | 399.71 | 998.65 | 2,495.02 | 6,233.54 | 15,573.88 | 38,909.77 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 4.24 | 40.90 | -219.25 | -471.99 | 3.01 | -89.24 | -222.97 | -557.07 | -1,391.77 | -3,477.21 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 3.56 | 38.97 | -228.41 | -490 | -1.13 | -99.60 | -248.85 | -621.73 | -1,553.34 | -3,880.86 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 0.67 | 1.93 | 9.15 | 18.01 | 4.15 | 10.36 | 25.88 | 64.67 | 161.56 | 403.65 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 37 | 247.59 | 1,229.84 | 560.47 | 599 | 883.80 | 2,208.09 | 5,516.69 | 13,782.89 | 34,435.16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 4.01 | 11.29 | 9.48 | 36.66 | 13.96 | 34.87 | 87.12 | 217.67 | 543.83 | 1,358.71 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | 7.69 | 2.50 | 3.65 | 6.07 | 15.17 | 37.91 | 94.71 | 236.62 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -1.94 | -9.80 | -45.45 | -43.57 | -14.08 | -35.17 | -87.88 | -219.55 | -548.52 | -1,370.43 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 3.77 |
|---|---|
| Beta | -0.791 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 263.99 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 620.02 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | -134.68% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | -0.251 |
| Total Debt | 13.20 |
| Total Equity | 995.23 |
| Total Capital | 1,008.44 |
| Debt Weighting | 1.31 |
| Equity Weighting | 98.69 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 63.57 | 338.38 | 1,139.96 | 1,049.88 | 399.71 | 998.65 | 2,495.02 | 6,233.54 | 15,573.88 | 38,909.77 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 4.24 | 40.90 | -219.25 | -471.99 | 3.01 | -89.24 | -222.97 | -557.07 | -1,391.77 | -3,477.21 |
| EBIT | 3.56 | 38.97 | -228.41 | -490 | -1.13 | -99.60 | -248.85 | -621.73 | -1,553.34 | -3,880.86 |
| Tax Rate | 8.16% | 6.44% | 2.43% | -1.35% | 620.02% | 127.14% | 127.14% | 127.14% | 127.14% | 127.14% |
| EBIAT | 3.27 | 36.46 | -222.86 | -496.60 | 5.89 | 27.03 | 67.54 | 168.75 | 421.60 | 1,053.32 |
| Depreciation | 0.67 | 1.93 | 9.15 | 18.01 | 4.15 | 10.36 | 25.88 | 64.67 | 161.56 | 403.65 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -7.28 | 1.81 | -27.18 | 22.70 | -20.91 | -52.25 | -130.55 | -326.16 | -814.88 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | 5.20 | -1.15 | -2.43 | -9.10 | -22.74 | -56.80 | -141.91 |
| Accounts Payable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Capital Expenditure | -1.94 | -9.80 | -45.45 | -43.57 | -14.08 | -35.17 | -87.88 | -219.55 | -548.52 | -1,370.43 |
| UFCF | 2 | 21.31 | -257.34 | -544.15 | 17.51 | -21.12 | -55.80 | -139.42 | -348.33 | -870.26 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -21.55 | -58.12 | -148.18 | -377.80 | -963.25 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -1,568.89 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | -2.01 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -887.66 |
| Terminal Value | 22,136.17 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 24,501.55 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 22,932.66 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -117.98 |
| Equity Value | 23,050.64 |
| Shares Outstanding | 263.99 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 87.32 |